Violence between Tamil Tiger guerrillas and Sri Lankan government forces has intensified in recent weeks and will likely continue to escalate in the near-term, as both rebels and government forces harden their political positions and entrench their commitment to all-out war. Government forces will continue to press offensives aimed at routing the Tigers from their strongholds in the north and east, and Tiger rebels will likely invigorate guerrilla operations against the government.
In the most recent fighting, two roadside bombs exploded in Jaffna town, killing one soldier and three civilians, and wounding 25 others (Terrorist Incident forthcoming). This attack follows a Tiger marine suicide attack off the Jaffna peninsula on January 21 against a cargo ship delivering food to civilians on the peninsula who have been essentially besieged and facing a food shortage due to the ongoing fighting (Terrorist Incident forthcoming). One Tiger suicide craft exploded against the MV City of Liverpool, crippling the ship (Terrorist Incident forthcoming). Some 12 Sri Lankan Dvora-class fast attack craft warships and helicopter gunships were launched to intercept the Sea Tiger flotilla of reportedly 20 boats, reportedly destroying at least three.
Last week, government forces routed rebels from their enclave in the eastern coastal town of Vakarai in the Batticaloa district. The coastal stretch spanning the districts of Trincomalee and Batticaloa in the northeast harbored a major maritime supply line for the Tigers, and its seizure by the government represents a significant strategic loss for the rebels. Government forces had laid siege to the town, squeezing supply flows into the city and trading artillery and mortar volleys in an effort to dislodge the rebels. Of the 35,000 residents of Vakarai, an estimated 20,000 have fled the coastal area toward government territory. Field reports suggest that the Tigers abandoned Vakarai without serious resistance in an effort to staunch their losses. The military claims to have killed more than 386 rebels in recent weeks of stepped up operations.
Forecast:?the Dogs of War
Following fruitless peace talks in October, both the government and the rebels have hardened their positions?in both words and actions?and focused on militancy as the preferred means of pursuing their end-state goals and enhanced strategic positioning and strength for future negotiations, returning the sides to all-out warfare and dashing near-term prospects for political negotiation.
Indeed, though the government offered to return to the negotiating table if the Tigers end offensive operations, the Tigers are unlikely to contemplate negotiating from a position of ?on-the-ground? weakness and will seek to make strategic and territorial gains against government forces through counteroffensives in the near-term as a necessary precondition for any negotiation. Further, government forces will likely press their offensives against Tiger strongholds in the east and the coastal areas from Trincomalee to Batticaloa in a bid to degrade Tiger dominance in the region. This offensive will likely add urgency and vigor to Tiger counteroffensives aimed at demonstrating to the rebels? support base the group?s continued organizational fitness and tenacity, to hurt government forces, and to defend and retake areas of strategic import. Thus, Sri Lanka will likely suffer major and protracted battles between government and rebel forces in the near-term. With Tiger forces largely routed or depleted in the east and the primary concentration of Tiger fighters, elite units, weapons, and materiel in the group?s stronghold in the north of the country, the majority of battles in the near-term will likely occur in the north, as the Tigers regroup to launch counterattacks across the country and defend this enclave against the government campaign likely to consolidate the east and swing against the north.
