After a turbulent 2006, it is likely that several trends will pervade in Europe, resulting in a great deal of growing pains. Energy security and insecurity dominated by Mother Russia will continue to affect diplomatic and economic regional relations with possible cascading effects on foreign investment and energy dependency outside the region. States will continue to suffer political growing pains, as burgeoning democracies have failed to launch or live up to their expectations, and states emerging from autocracy are struggling to define their futures. Russia will continue to exert its dominance?those states that favor the West will feel the cold wrath of Russian economic and foreign policy.
Terrorism and Conflict
Most of the regional antagonism will focus on political and economic issues, both of which are not likely to lead to conflict in the short-term but may create pockets of instability. There are some potential hotspots, such as Kosovo and Abkhazia, where independence and territorial disputes have the potential to ignite into conflict. In terms of terrorism, sporadic attacks have occurred in the Caucasus, and the Chechen Rebels are in disarray with the Russians eliminating their major leadership. However, this quiet period may be a time for regrouping, and we will likely see a resurgence of Chechen Rebel activity. Further west, we will likely see more instances of terrorist plots or cells, such as the recent convictions of would-be terrorists in Bosnia and Herzegovina , being disrupted in the Balkans.
Energy Security/Insecurity/Cascading Effects
Russia has found the perfect tool to exercise its power in the post-Soviet era?they are using pipelines instead of tanks to flex their power . Russia?s vast energy resources have given it a great deal of economic clout to wield as a foreign policy instrument. Over the course of 2006, the subsidies the Russian government has given to former republics and satellite states are drying up with Russia demanding huge price increases, which these countries can little afford. Georgia , the Ukraine , and Belarus have had their supplies cut off over various disputes. More energy disputes between Russia and its former cohorts are likely with Russia retaining the upper hand in any disputes. The high energy costs and dependency will likely have cascading effects in some of the poorer countries. Western Europe is less vulnerable than its eastern neighbors, but its energy consumption needs will only increase, and Russia has been obstinate in regards to energy concessions, namely resisting signing the Energy Charter Treaty. Russia?s drive to consolidate government control over its energy assets will likely continue to extend to foreign investments making those types of investments risky.
Failure to Launch and Political Instability
Some of the former Soviet states are undergoing growing pains and flux that may lead to political instability. Independence from Russia?s sphere of influence has come with a price. Even countries like the Ukraine, which only recently celebrated the so-called Orange Revolution and democratic freedoms under the leadership of Viktor Yushchenko, have fallen flat. Yushchenko has now formed a coalition government with his arch rival, the pro-Moscow politician, Viktor Yanukovych, and a lack of confidence in many government officials is now rampant. Many of the promises for reform have been derailed over political and governmental squabbling. Similarly, in recent elections in Serbia, the Serbian Radical Party won most of the seats, although not a majority. They will likely have to form a coalition with three other more pro-Western parties, but the odds of all these parties getting along to form a common agenda are not good. Also, a decision on Kosovo?s final status is due imminently . A decision to grant independence to Kosovo (a legal territory of Serbia) is bound to lead to more confusion and dissent in Serbia.
Further east, there is also likely to be instability in Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan . With the unexpected death of long-time dictator, Saparmurat Niyazov, much needed reforms may take place, yet the interim leader, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, has pledged both reforms and adherence to Niyazov?s values. These are incompatible ideals, and the political situation there will likely worsen. In Kyrgyzstan, political deterioration and weariness is also taking place. President Bakiyev was forced into a new constitution, but continued disputes between the Cabinet and Parliament have plagued the country over the slow pace of reforms, resulting in the resignation of the Cabinet. Indeed, there is a season of discontent in Central Asia and Eastern Europe, as the populaces tire of the reign of strongmen, saviors who come up empty with reform, and internal government bickering quashing in any real progress. This trend will only grow worse in the coming year. The ex-Soviet states are still in a state of flux; it is just that the fissures are now becoming more apparent.
Western Europe under Pressure
Western Europe has seen another tense year gone by, as the threat by Islamic terrorism has risen with an exceptional velocity. With several large terrorist attacks attempts thwarted in 2006, the European community has grown aware that terrorists are eyeing Europe as their prime target. But, more worrisome is that governmental intelligence agencies throughout Europe have admitted that they are having great difficulties keeping up with the frightening developments. The majority of the European intelligence agencies are undergoing readjustments in order to allocate necessary capabilities to meet the threat. Even so, we should expect another attack on European soil in 2007, as Islamic radicals continue to demonstrate an unwavering determination accompanied by a growing resource base.
Islamic Terrorism
TRC anticipates that Islamic terrorist networks with well-established foundations in Europe will continue to grow in capacity and sophistication, as they pioneer new ways of breaching security walls and evading counter-terrorism intelligence. As we witnessed in 2006, the opportunities for growth are deriving from two key sources:
1.) the wars in the Middle East are providing a fresh training ground for aspiring Jihadists traveling from their native European countries to join the battles, and
2.) the Internet has presented immeasurable ways for Islamic radical recruiters and propagandists to reach young people susceptive to indoctrination.
Islamic radicalization among youths in Europe is and will continue to present a great challenge for European nations .
The possibility of an attack in Europe will remain high, as several strikes are in the advanced planning stages. The UK and France run the highest risk of being attacked, as their foreign policies have put them in the crosshairs of terrorist groups above any other nation. Officials in Britain have disclosed that they are watching more than 1,600 individuals suspected of plotting attacks against the nation , while France has been singled out as the main target of the al-Qaeda-allied GSPC (Group Profile, WAR Report, Intel Report). Other nations running an elevated risk include: Germany , Spain , and Denmark .
TRC also foresees that sophisticated Islamic terrorist networks will diversify their array of targets, as they recognize the value of reworking some of their traditional objectives in order to evade detection. As seen in 2005 and 2006, transportation continues to compose a prime mark; however, softer targets?crowded tourist sites, shopping malls, and trademark buildings–may be targeted by suicide bombers, conceivably in multiple attacks carried out simultaneously in an effort recreate the persuasive impact caused in the London and Madrid attacks .
Political Events in 2007
Britain will undergo a leadership shift in 2007, as Prime Minister Tony Blair is expected to hand over his seat to current treasury chief Gordon Brown sometime mid-year. TRC foresees that Brown will bring about a foreign policy change, especially pertaining to Britain?s relationship with the US . He is likely to downsize his nation?s forces in Iraq and realign Britain?s strategy, as he has openly declared that he disagrees with many of US?s policies. Brown will seek to gain popular support by appeasing his constituents? harsh opposition to what has been widely perceived blind compliancy with the US. He may further seek a larger support base from his European neighbors, to include those who strongly dispute the war in Iraq, despite of the prospect of causing a rift with the administration in Washington .
In April, France will take to the polls to vote for a new president. The two frontrunners are considered to be the center-left politician Segolene Royal, who is moving strongly on an economic and social issues program, and the incumbent Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, who is running on a center-right platform. A number of far-rightist are also making headway in the election polls. If Sarkozy takes the lead and wins the presidential seat, he is likely to bring about conservative policy amendments, to include pushing for harsher immigration laws. This will put France in line with a cluster of EU countries that have won popular support through their stance on radically regulating immigration. France is dealing within their minority communities that, due to poor assimilation efforts by the government, are suffering from social segregation, racial discrimination, and sky-rocketing unemployment rates.
This lack of assimilation is putting both local and national political candidates throughout Europe under pressure to bring about amendments in these areas . Due to this growing popular support, we will continue to see small, but noteworthy, shifts toward rightist policies both on the national government level and in the EU parliament . While the policymaking will continue to move toward less favorable regulations for the immigration population, this will also lead to cultural animosity among the immigrant communities, as the minority populations perceive themselves as being marginalized by their societies. There is, therefore, a risk for continued hostility that could lead to violence, as was seen in the rioting in France , and radicalization on a smaller but yet significant scale.
