Over the past couple of years, Syria has believed that it is possible to exchange cooperation on Iraq for US complicity in its bid to reestablish proxy control in Lebanon . But, as foreign fighters coming over the Syrian border are figuring much less in the general Iraq stability calculus, Syria has become much less relevant to the Iraqi situation. Syria knows this and has tried to bolster cross-border tribal ties in order to gain some clout in Iraq and again become an entity worth reckoning with in the Iraqi theater?all with little result.
The current strategy for stabilizing Iraq puts undue emphasis on the importance of Syria. Syria used to be more important?when the flow of foreign fighters over the border was a prime contributor, if not the main factor, in the instability in Iraq. However, as 2007 begins, foreign fighters are no longer the heart of the problem. Instead, sectarian violence among Iraqis, the ?Balkanization? of Baghdad and other areas, the government?s crumbling authority, and the various manifestations of Iranian influence have upstaged foreign Mujahideen in their relevance.
Syria does not so much ideologically support foreign fighters as it has simply enjoyed having a card to play with Washington. By offering to extend more control over its borders, Damascus has hoped to extract informal concessions from the US or, at least, compel it to take a softer approach.
Syria has come to recognize its waning relevance to Iraq?s problems. In an attempt to reestablish a stronger role in Iraq and another bargaining chip with Washington, Syria has attempted to secure other avenues of influence such as tribal connections to prominent Sunnis. For the most part, however, Syria no longer has many strings to pull in the current conflict in Iraq, especially compared to Iran and to the self-propelled inertia of Shiite-Sunni reciprocal violence.
Iraq recognized this and is engaging Syria. Iraqi President Jalal Talabani went on the first official visit to Damascus for any Iraqi leader in the past 30 years. Iraq is not the only country that differs in its perception of Syria?s relevance to the current violence. The US stands alone in its persistent conviction that Syria is playing a major role in Iraqi instability.
Continuing to place undue focus on Syria in the Iraqi context awards it a significance it does not deserve. Over the coming year, the best policy toward Syria is to ignore it, sending a message that it no longer has bargaining chips of significant value. Both engagement and public chastisement cause Damascus to puff up in self-importance and, in their own distinct ways, provide an incentive for the continuation of rogue behavior. Taking al-Assad out of the spotlight might also help liberate the alleged ?reformer? in him, who has been long speculated to lie dormant and caged in by domestic security concerns . If such a strategy yields no beneficial results by 2008, then the US could resume a hard-line posture. But, for the time being, there are more deserved recipients of Washington?s attention in the region.
