Historically, US counter-narcotics officials dismissed the ?balloon effect? theory– whereby government efforts to eradicate illicit narcotics production in one area results in its transfer elsewhere– as a myth perpetuated by critics. The idea now, however, is widely accepted among those steadfast supporters of the US anti-narcotics programs. International efforts to combat illegal narcotics production and distribution has shifted drug activities from country to country and accelerated the growth of transnational criminal organizations in the long-term.
New Stomping Grounds
Cocaine processing and distribution, formerly dominated by Colombian drug cartels, is being appropriated by Mexican cartels. The shifting processing and trafficking base of narcotics in Latin America is predominately due to aggressive joint US-Columbian eradication efforts. Plan Colombia has effectively reduced the ability of Colombian cartels to maintain their control on the narcotics market.
Mexican cartels, formerly regarded as couriers for Columbian drugs, have seized upon this opportunity and are forming partnerships with coca farmers in Peru. By eliminating the Colombian ?middle-man?, Mexican drug cartels have substantially increased their profit margins and reduced interference in shipment deliveries. Additionally, Mexican cartels have formed dozens of state-of-the-art processing labs inside Peruvian territory, which has allowed their distribution operations to expand into new markets throughout Latin America, Europe and Asia.
The Peruvian coastline offers 23 maritime ports of which 5 are considered major operating ports. Mexican drug trafficking cartels prize these ports due to the relative ease in which illicit cargo can be placed inconspicuously within authorized cargo shipments. Record cocaine shipments bound for Mexico highlight increased Mexican cartel presence and a corresponding increase in drug-lab efficiency and sophistication in Peru. Moreover Mexican cartels ensure the safe delivery of cargo by using ?in-house? distributors.
The United States has contributed about US $5 billion into an Andean anti-drug plan since 2000, including an estimated $720 million to Peru. Initially the Andean anti-drug program was viewed as successful as Peruvian coca growth and production had steadily declined. However, in hindsight it appears the reduction was likely attributable to both shifting coca growth, as Colombian farmers began to increase coca growth due to reductions in Peruvian growth and the Peruvian government?s sustained and successful campaign against the Shining Path, which had previously provided protection to Peruvian coca farmers in exchange for a percentage of their income earned.
As the US government has again focused sizable military and financial assistance on Colombia, coca growth and cocaine production has shifted back to Peru, which has experienced a 40 percent increase in recent years. Peru exports approximately 190 tons of cocaine a year and US-led efforts to halt production led to less then 20 tons of cocaine being seized in 2006.
The Mexican Influence
Near-term negative implications for Peru are high. The state is likely to experience drug-related violence similar to Mexico. Additionally drug money could potentially corrupt security forces, judges, and politicians, as has previously occurred in Colombia, Mexico and Peru during the 1980s and 1990s.
More disconcerting is the recent resurgence of the Shining Path that has regained strength in areas of the Peruvian highlands due to surging coca growth and cocaine production. The movement is again offering protection to drug traffickers and coca farms from U.S.-backed eradication efforts. The Shining Path movement is now based more on profit than ideology, and sees drug trafficking as a particularly attractive way to provide a source of income.
A Look Ahead
Recently, Peruvian and Mexican authorities held policy talks in Peru and pledged greater cooperation in their fight against drug cartels. Additionally, Peruvian President Alan Garc?a has met with US President Bush in Washington and pledged ?total eradication of the drug trafficker threat.? The US government has earmarked $60 million over the next three years for helicopters to assist the Peru government in their eradication efforts.
Peruvian security in the near to mid-term will likely be violent. Additionally, the resurgence of the Shining Path in Peru?s highland areas jeopardizes the long-term stability of these areas, particularly around Ayacucho, the historical birthplace of the Shining Path.
Moreover the coca leafs historical connection with indigenous Peruvian communities and their cultivation of coca for medicinal and consumptive purposes complicates Garcia?s ability to ban its growth.
Peru will likely become the newest battleground for drug cartels and a US-led war on drugs. The future of the area is of particular concern as drug cartels and the drugs they traffic are beginning to transcend national borders.