The ongoing political crisis and street violence in Bangladesh has intensified as of late and is likely to crescendo in the run up to scheduled elections on January 22, threatening the legitimacy and very feasibility of the elections. The crisis will likely become increasingly entrenched, and, without major and unlikely political concessions by either rival camp, Bangladesh will suffer increased political and national instability, conflict, and violence in the near term.
In the latest civil unrest, an alliance of 19 political parties pressing the interim government for electoral reforms and the postponement of elections and led by the opposition Awami League (AL) has organized a three-day transport blockade on rail, roads, and river routes in and around Dhaka, throttling the capital and cutting it off from the rest of the country. Reuters is reporting that as a result of the transport blockade ?Deliveries from the main seaport at Chittagong and at several land ports connecting India and Myanmar were suspended.?
Police have clashed with protesters who have thrown stones, exploded small homemade bombs, and set vehicles alight. Police used teargas and fired rubber bullets to quell the protests. The clashes reportedly injured at least 100, including police, with the United News of Bangladesh reporting 300 people injured. Troops began patrolling Dhaka, and paramilitary soldiers and members of the elite Rapid Action Battalion deployed across the country to smother the expansion of the blockade.
Deepening the political crisis, the alliance headed by the AL has stated its intention to boycott the upcoming elections if their demanded electoral reforms are not enacted. In addition, the Jatiya Party, and the Liberal Democratic Party have also threatened to boycott the polls. As described in recent TRC WAR Reports (see the December 6 and November 1 WAR Reports) the opposition parties contend that the interim government?intended as a non-partisan, neutral caretaker government mandated to shepherd the nation through free and fair elections, thus avoiding the possibility of the sitting government rigging elections?as well as the election commission are studded with allies of the former governing party (the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)) who are biased in favor of the BNP in the election process. The parties continue to demand the resignation of President Iajuddin Ahmed, who installed himself as head of the interim government and who is perceived by opposition parties as a BNP ally; the rescheduling of the polls by the election commission; and the updating of current voter lists which the AL contends are flawed and contain as many as 14 million phantom voters. The AL had also called into question the legality of Ahmed?s position and the degree of power he has consolidated in serving as not only President, but also the home, defense, and foreign ministers; the commander-in-chief of the armed forces; and his own adviser.
Ahmed has said that he cannot postpone the elections. The constitution mandates that elections be held within 90 days of the sitting government relinquishing power to the interim government.
The Battle Continues
The contending government and opposition camps have of late grown more entrenched in their positions, and have intensified their combative political maneuvering, indicating a stubbornness unlikely to yield significant political concession or compromise that might resolve the crisis before the election date. The most feasible stopgap action for heading off the deterioration of the crisis would be the postponement of elections until both camps can negotiate a political compromise or path out of political deadlock. Should elections take place as scheduled without the demanded electoral reforms, the AL alliance, the Jatiya Party, and the Liberal Democratic Party are likely to make good on their word to boycott the elections, leaving the BNP and its allies as the primary participants. Such an election scenario would severely corrode the legitimacy of the elections and the derivative government, political positions, and power, in turn plunging the country deeper into crisis.
The current political crisis is on trajectory of intensifying political and national instability, conflict, and violence in the near term that will threaten the country?s elections and governing structures. As the election date approaches and national instability grows, the likelihood of a robust intervention by the military to stabilize the country increases significantly. Indeed, in a sign of just how dire Bangladesh?s national crisis and instability has become, military intervention may present a best-worst case option for breaking the political paralysis and restoring a measure of political and national stability.
