As part of the US public relations offensive regarding Iran?s nuclear program, the US military announced plans to expand the Persian Gulf naval presence significantly, while also publicly discussing the detention of Iranian military personnel in Iraq . The messages emphasized the US power projection capability to Tehran and served as a reminder to the international community of Iran?s continued nefarious foreign policy.
The US, working with European allies, also managed to pass a Security Council (UNSC) Resolution targeting Iranian nuclear program activities. Though the measures penalizing Iran were significantly limited by P-5 members China and Russia ?countries tied to Iran by energy and trade interests–the resolution still holds significance. The fragile UNSC coalition remained united behind some form of punishment for Iran over its nuclear transgressions, maintaining US momentum in this endeavor, and the IAEA will report back in 60 days on Iran?s compliance with the resolution. Given Iran?s insistence that it will not acquiesce to the UNSC?s primary demand of ceasing uranium enrichment, the IAEA report could set the stage for more significant sanctions, either within or outside the UN framework.
US Power Projection
The decision to increase US naval presence in the Persian Gulf with a second carrier battle group likely joining the USS Eisenhower is a direct message to Tehran that despite its focus on Iraq, the US military is entirely capable of maintaining watch on Iran. The decision is also intended to reassure regional allies that US forces will protect Persian Gulf shipping lanes from Iranian attacks, a potential reaction from Iran in the event of increased international pressure against its nuclear program.
US forces launched several raids on Shiite militants in Iraq that netted five Iranian citizens, two of whom were suspected members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The raids also produced evidence linking the Iranians to attacks against US and Iraqi personnel. Iran?s support of Shiite militias is not a new development; US and British forces have been criticizing Iran for exporting advanced IED technology to Iraq over the last several years. Yet, in capturing Iranian military personnel and discussing their direct ties to militia attacks with the media, the US government reminded the global community of Iran?s foreign policy tendency toward meddlesome and malevolent behavior.
Laying the Groundwork for Future Sanctions
Passed on December 23, 2006, Security Council Resolution 1737 bans the supply of technology and equipment to Iran that could ?contribute to enrichment-related, reprocessing or heavy-water related activities, or to the development of nuclear weapon delivery systems? (source). It also freezes the financial assets of certain persons or entities involved in the nuclear and delivery system programs. Given that Iran has obtained much of the necessary materiel, technology, and expertise, the current sanctions will have a limited effect. Moreover, Russia ensured it could continue enjoying its profitable, nuclear energy cooperation with Iran by having the Russian-built Bushehr reactor exempted from sanctions.
Yet, the US and its European allies are building a strong case for future sanctions that could devastate an already weak Iranian economy and potentially coerce Iranian behavior. Reminding the international community of Iran?s dangerous foreign policy, projecting reassuring power capability in the Persian Gulf, and establishing a diplomatic record of UN resolutions and Iranian defiance are all important efforts toward this end. Even without the support of Russia and China, a broad international coalition imposing an effective economic embargo may still ultimately curtail Iran?s nuclear ambition.
