The sudden heart attack and resulting death of Turkmenistan?s President, Saparmurat Niyazov , has left both a leadership vacuum and concerns for Turkmenistan?s future stability. After almost 20 years of iron-fisted rule, some democratic reforms may now take place. However, Niyazov?s sudden death has caught many people by surprise, and there may be a scramble for power in the country. New opportunities and instability may come to the fore.
During Niyazov?s rule, the democratic process and opposition politics were crushed, and his rule was that of an absolute dictator. Although Turkmenistan is the fifth largest natural gas producer, most of the country has lived in abject poverty with both educational and healthcare institutions crumbling. He maintained a cult of personality with an obsession with himself rather than dealing with the country?s issues. Yet, despite this legacy, the massive outpouring of grief that surrounds his death and funeral as well as the closing of stores, canceling of the New Year?s Eve celebrations all seem to point toward a populace that is too stunned to realize the consequences and opportunities his death presents.
The populace is unlikely to suddenly embrace democracy; they need time to shake off the chains of his autocratic rule. Those who benefited from his reign will likely try to keep power for themselves. However, opposition groups will now likely try to seize the opportunity to both gain power and institute reforms in the country. It may take some time to see how this situation will unfold.
Outside powers will be watching to see if their interests may be affected. Specifically, Russia?s Gazprom is a major purchaser of natural gas from Turkmenistan. If new leadership alters this relationship, then Gazprom as well as Russian foreign and economic policy could be adversely affected. Turkmenistan also borders Iran and Afghanistan . From a strategic perspective, terrorism and religious radicalization have not been problematic in Turkmenistan. However, in an unstable Turkmenistan in a volatile region, these external influences could be fertile grounds. Although the end of a dictatorship is a positive development, who and what takes its place need to be closely watched.
