Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called for new presidential and parliamentary elections amidst an escalation of sectarian violence in the Palestinian Territories. Hamas , the majority party in the Lebanese Parliament, has refused to participate in early legislative elections. Hamas refutes Abbas? authority to call the elections and has characterized the political maneuvering as an attempted coup d?etat of the people?s will expressed in the January 2006 elections .
The most likely resolution to the Palestinian crisis remains the formation of a national unity government of technocrats agreed on by Hamas and Fatah . However, given the recent intensity and proliferation of attacks by both parties, the potential for civil war in the Palestinian Territories is at its highest in recent history.
Early Elections
Frustrated by the collapse of unity government talks and facing pressure within his own Fatah party to resolve the year-long crisis with Hamas, Abbas announced his intention to bring the decision to the people and hold new presidential and parliamentary elections. While the Basic Law, which governs the Palestinian Authority, explicitly states the president?s right to dismiss the cabinet, it neither affirms nor denies his ability to dismiss Parliament. Abbas asserts that this ambiguity does not block him for doing so, and recent polling suggests roughly 60% of Palestinians support early elections.
The decision to call for elections is a political gambit for Abbas, who has done little to correct the cronyism and corruption within Fatah that resulted in its electoral loss last January. Polls show Hamas leader and Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh in a statistical dead heat for the presidency and Fatah holding a slight edge over Hamas for parliamentary seats. In actuality, new elections could bring Hamas victory in the parliament and the presidency, providing it a monopoly of power over the entire Palestinian government.
Outbreak of Internecine Warfare
Last week?s conflagration of violence among Palestinians was sparked by the murder of three young boys?sons of a Fatah security official–in a botched assassination attempt (Terrorist Incident forthcoming). The ensuing violence included the daylight execution of a Hamas official outside a courthouse, assassination attempts on Haniyeh and Foreign Minister Mahmoud al-Zahar, a mortar attack on President Abbas? compound, a gun battle at the Rafah border crossing, a raid on the training camp of the Presidential Guard, and violent street clashes between demonstrators and security services in Gaza and the West Bank. Subsequently, a cease-fire between Fatah and Hamas has been brokered by other Palestinian factions and Egyptian mediators.
Unity Government Still Possible
The likely resolution to the political stalemate remains the formation of a unity government. The elections, if they occur, are scheduled for no earlier than summer 2007, providing Fatah and Hamas months to continue negotiations. Both sides have been close to agreeing on the makeup and platform of such a unity government in the past , and Abbas likely calculated that calling for elections would provide him additional leverage toward reaching a favorable agreement with Hamas.
Moreover, neither Fatah nor Hamas is eager to pursue alternative political and security options. The elections, at this point, are a virtual toss-up, with neither side confident in the outcome. Furthermore, in the event of a war between Fatah and Hamas, it is similarly unclear who would prove victorious?the numerically superior, western-armed Fatah forces or the more dedicated, disciplined militias of Hamas. And, while the leaders of both Fatah and Hamas insist a Palestinian civil war will never occur, the chaotic violence of last week indicates the situation can, indeed, devolve into a situation beyond the control of either group?s top leadership.
