On December 15, unidentified gunmen attacked a Royal Dutch Shell facility in Bayelsa State of Nigeria , taking an unknown number of employees hostage . This facility was targeted on October 10 and was the second Shell facility targeted in Bayelsa in eight days . Analysts suspect that these incidents are less terrorism-related than a community row in which locals believe Shell owes financial restitution. Local leaders organize raids similar to these on oil infrastructure in order to force companies to deliver revenue, jobs, and reconstruction aid for the extraction of oil perceived as theirs. Aggression against wealthy foreign oil companies is fueled by abject poverty and socio-economic neglect, mostly on the part of the Nigerian government. These incidents, including kidnappings, typically last just days and are traditionally resolved peacefully. However, as has been seen lately by Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND; Group Profile), this trend may be changing.
MEND Tactics and Techniques
MEND has made quite a name for itself in recent weeks. The group has evolved from a band of militiamen into a bona fide terrorist group that has sent emails threatening simultaneous car bombing campaigns in strategic areas of the Niger Delta ?any minute from now.? On December 18, two oil facilities?Agip and Shell residential compounds in Port Harcourt –reported near simultaneous blasts that were claimed by MEND and are believed to have been two of the three threatened car bombs . MEND has vowed to continue its struggle, which focuses heavily on local (versus national) control of oil production. This is also the group responsible for cutting one-fifth of oil production in Nigeria in February 2006 by attacking oil facilities.
The group has set a precedent with two previous car bombings in Port Harcort and Warri (Terrorist Incidents forthcoming) in 2006, so the tactic is not new to them. Similarly, their swarming attacks in early 2006 illustrated a certain sophistication in their acquisition and use of multiple speed boats to keep targets, including the Nigerian Navy, unable to defend themselves that has since been honed and perfected. Even their uniforms?black balaclavans and flak jackets?and their common chants and songs indicate an organized structure. Their coordinated attacks, based on weapons training and attack planning likely provided by experiences, former soldiers, have afforded them many successes against military and contract security that lesser groups would not have survived. The simultaneity of the attacks serves as an indicator of the growing sophistication and planning that the group has achieved. Their motive, too, is unlike other groups; they have a political motivation, not criminal (ie financial). No other group in the region has reached the capabilities of MEND, although many could well take lessons from MEND?s achievements.
April 2007 Election
The ruling People?s Democratic Party (PDP) named Umara Yar?Adua, a Muslim from the northern state of Katsina, as their presidential candidate. He has outgoing President Olusegun Obasanjo?s support despite having Yar?Adua?s negligible political experience. Conversely, Yar?Adua is one of a few politicians not under fire for corruption. The All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), the main opposition, named Muhammadu Buhari, as their contender. Buhari also comes from Katsina, a trait the ANPP hopes to exploit in splitting the northern Muslim vote in their favor. A secondary opposition party, the Action Congress Party (ACP), will meet on December 20 to select their candidate, believed to be Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a rival to his own President and the PDP, which he helped found. The ANPP and the ACP, ideologically similar parties, agreed last week not to run candidates against each other in an effort to beat the PDP, so they will likely choose one presidential contender to represent both parties. A total of 50 political parties? candidates will be announced by December 22.
Conclusion
MEND will continue, if not increase, their attacks, as they achieve greater and greater successes toward their political agenda. Thus far, they have killed a number of Nigerian security officers; as their campaigns expand, additional deaths?to include civilians and oil workers–can also be expected. Other groups in Nigeria (Terrorism) may seek out MEND?s expertise in achieving their own agendas. MEND can be expected to continue to issue threats, then act upon them in planned, sophisticated, coordinated, simultaneous attacks.
The 2007 elections will mark the first transition of power between elected presidents since the country?s 1960 independence. However, the election has a real possibility of sparking violence, as the northerners believe the presidency should be theirs after years of rule by a southerner, Obasanjo. Should anyone but a Muslim northerner win, violence can be expected from the north; should anyone but a southerner win, violence can be expected from the south. As such, the security and political climates continue to deteriorate, as the leading terrorist organization continues to hone its tradecraft and score wins.
