President Felipe Calderon has wasted little time in pursuing one of his main campaign pledges of restoring stability and security to Mexico?s drug embattled states. Beginning on December 11, 2006, approximately 5,000 soldiers and federal police officers, backed by dozens of military aircraft and naval vessels, launched a crackdown in the state of Michoacan. The state has experienced a rampant escalation in drug-related violence in the last two years, as rival drug cartels battle for the state?s lucrative drug trafficking routes. Michoacan?s unguarded Pacific coastline has become a key air and sea transit point for cocaine, amphetamines, and heroin bound for the US . Turf wars between the Valencia and Gulf cartels have claimed over 530 lives in 2006.
According to the BBC (source) and the AP (source), Mexican security forces have achieved two substantial successes this week: detaining Elias Valencia, a suspected head of the Valencia cartel, and Alfonso Barajas, the alleged head of the Gulf Cartel and leader of the ?Zetas? . Additionally, Mexican troops have detained and/or killed several drug traffickers,
Learning Lessons from Fox?s Mistakes
However, expecting these limited operations to alter dramatically Mexico?s long-term security environment is misguided. Similar short-duration security operations by former President Vicente Fox created a power vacuum in the cartels and dispersed drug operations throughout Mexico. During Fox?s tenure, Mexican and US authorities arrested Osiel Cardenas, a powerful kingpin; Francisco Javier Arellano Felix, a key member of the Tijuana cartel; and Armando Valencia, former head of the Valencia cartel. These arrests actually increased violence between cartels, resulting in Mexico?s current deteriorating security environment.
Mexico?s Interior Minister Francisco Ramirez Acuna has recognized the deficiencies in Fox?s anti-narcotic operations, namely the lack of a sustained, multi-pronged security operation, encompassing multiple Mexican states. In various statements made to Mexico?s press, Ramirez Acuna reiterated the government?s desire to sustain these operations for an indefinite period of time, expanding military commitments to all troubled Mexican states.
Calderon the Subtle Tactician
Calderon?s political critics contend that the security crackdown is nothing more than a stopgap measure meant to capture the public spotlight while doing little to alter the overall security environment. However, Calderon?s security initiative demonstrates his astute political nature. Calderon lacks both the charisma of his predecessor and a majority in Congress, forcing political and security initiatives that are not dependent on Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) or the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) participation. Furthermore, security crackdowns in Michoacan, controlled by PRD Governor Lazaro Cardenas Batel, demonstrate his desire for bipartisan cooperation in Mexico?s fight against drug cartels. Cardenas Batel has voiced his approval for the ongoing security initiatives, encouraging other PRD and PRI governors to do the same. Moreover, congressional representatives from Veracruz, Sinaloa, Morelos, Jalisco, and Guerrero are requesting similar operations. Near-term security successes in these states against drug cartels could expedite other economic and social initiatives proposed by Calderon?s administration.
Calderon has achieved near-term political successes through these military operations. Mexico will likely witness a decrease in drug-related violence in the short-term, while experiencing violent pushback from the cartels. The expansion of security operations throughout western and northern Mexico is imperative if Calderon?s government is to achieve any long-term security improvement. Additionally, economic and social reform packages are necessary to deter future participation by Mexico?s youth in the cartels.
