Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah?s Secretary-General, has miscalculated. Nasrallah believed that bringing his masses of supporters into the street in an apparent attempt to besiege the Fouad Siniora government would force a compromise. Instead, it has revealed the Shia militia?s willingness to use the threat of force to take down the Lebanese government. ?We are seeking peaceful means only because we are committed to them. But other means are also legitimate,? declared Hezbollah ally Michel Aoun at a rally for protesters. Mobs in tent cities yell ?Death to Siniora.? Lebanese cabinet ministers, frightened for their lives, have sought refuge in the fortified Parliament building.
The scene is one of a government under siege. But, it is Nasrallah, not Siniora, who is backed into a corner. By taking an overtly threatening posture toward Siniora, even threatening his life, Hezbollah?s mostly Shiite supporters have revealed to Sunnis and Christians the true nature of their domestic political participation.
Nasrallah refuses to acknowledge that he and his militia are only popular across sectarian groups in Lebanon as a bastion against an outside enemy. Hezbollah has squandered across sectarian lines the domestic popularity it gained during the summer war with Israel (WAR Report, WAR Report, and WAR Report).
Sunnis have responded with angry counter-protests in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli. Hezbollah has turned Siniora from a politician of mediocre popularity into a symbol for the rule of law and commitment to the Lebanese constitution. To bow to Hezbollah?s demands would be to bow to the anarchy of mob rule and the tyranny of Hassan Nasrallah.
Additionally, protests have had an unpopular impact on the economy, stopping tourism and forcing businesses to close. The lack of an apparent provocation or justification for these protests other than Hezbollah?s desire for a power grab and opposition, on behalf of their Syrian patrons, to the approved international tribunal is irritating Lebanese eagerness to rebuild and return to normalcy.
Fouad Siniora is, thus, unlikely to agree to Michel Aoun?s call to resign. He and his government will focus on the points of negotiation determined before these protests as a way of negating the effectiveness of the mass protests.
Hezbollah?s allies and leaders, their rhetoric already beginning to reflect some recognition of their squandered cross-sectarian popularity, will likely back down soon. They will trumpet any concessions as the fruits of this latest circus, but Siniora will remain in charge of his government, and non-Shia Lebanese will remain skeptical of Hezbollah?s intentions in Lebanon.