Since its release last week, the Iraq Study Group (ISG) report has brought forth strong praise and criticism regarding its ?diplomatic offensive? recommendation. Two assumptions anchor the ISG report recommendations for a US outreach initiative to Iraq?s regional neighbors:
I. The US mission in Iraq is failing. If left unaltered, the current US strategy will turn Iraq into the epicenter of instability for the region.
II. Chaos in Iraq is not in the interest of any of its neighbors. The prospect of increased refugee flows and a broader regional war are daunting scenarios.
With these foundations, the ISG recommended the US launch a diplomatic offensive aimed at Iraq?s neighbors that seeks their assistance in stabilizing Iraq. To aid the US diplomatic effort, the ISG further recommended the US re-engage in resolving the Israeli -Palestinian conflict as a means of winning support from Arab state allies and restoring the US reputation as an equitable arbiter in the region.
Aiding the Counter-Insurgency Effort
One key step to ending the insurgency is to convince the Sunni Iraqi community to buy into the political system and authority of the national government. As it currently stands, the majority of Sunni Iraqis views the national government as a hostile force and the political system as a vehicle for Iraqi Shiite power and their own disenfranchisement. If the national government can make key reforms (crack down on Shiite militias, end corruption, provide basic services, limit de-Baathification), influential Sunni Arab states?Saudi Arabia , Egypt , Jordan –will have a critical role in helping to convince their Sunni brethren in Iraq to accept the rule of the national government. Such a development will end the participation of Sunni nationalist segments of the insurgency and isolate the remaining criminal and terrorist elements.
Ties to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
US re-engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is directly tied to the success of a new US policy in Iraq. The Middle East states whose cooperation is integral to stabilizing Iraq assert the Israeli-Palestinian issue as the primary impetus for conflict in the region. They also perceive the US as the only country capable of influencing Israel?s position. Therefore, US re-engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be seen as quid pro quo for Arab states? support on Iraq; moderate Arab leaders can explain their cooperation with the US over Iraq in these terms to their constituencies. Moreover, reclaiming responsibility for pushing forward diplomacy in the conflict will elevate the US position throughout the region.
Avoiding a Worst Case Scenario
Iraq is a microcosm of the religious, ethnic, and political tensions that exist throughout the Middle East. A worst case, but plausible, scenario for Iraq is the outbreak of a regional proxy war, fought by Iranian-funded Shiite elements against Saudi-funded Sunni forces. Feeding these tensions are the historic, religious divide among Sunni and Shia and a Sunni Arab state fear over Iran?s rising influence in the Middle East, culminating in a Shiite crescent reaching from Tehran to Baghdad and on to Beirut. The Shia view the same phenomenon as a natural assertion of their rights against Sunni- dominated legal and political systems that discriminate against them.
Thus, the ISG report recommends the US begin talks with all of Iraq?s neighbors, including Tehran and Damascus, in forming the Iraq International Support Group as a means of pre-empting this worst-case scenario in the long-term and hopefully of bringing Iraq some short-term benefits as well (Syria tightens its borders to hinder criss-crossing insurgents; Iran limits its funds and arms for Shiite militias) . The ideal solution is that Iraq?s neighbors are provided an avenue for positive input and influence, becoming invested in the process of Iraq?s stabilization.
