The conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia is escalating faster than the international community?s efforts to appease the outset of war. Although an all-out war has not taken place yet, Ethiopia is already dealing with what would traditionally be the aftermath of war. The spectrum of issues facing a contentious state like Ethiopia?Islamic radicalism, ethnic and religious conflicts, housing rights, and the lack of border control–has turned a sizable number of citizens against each other and against the government.
Internal Issues Inflamed by Horn Conflict
Although Ethiopia?s Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, has alleviated some poverty and improved some infrastructure, he has managed to turn Ethiopia into a police state. Many opposition supporters are in prison on fabricated charges facing the death penalty, and tens of thousands of young Ethiopians were sent to prison camps. The press has been stamped out; foreign correspondents were expelled and many journalists and editors imprisoned. Echoing a state of emergency, Ethiopia has hired foreign specialists to help it shut down opposition web sites, track emails/Internet activities, and tap telephones.
Ethiopia and Somalia share a border of approximately 995 miles, much of which is the scene for the proliferation of small arms and light weapons, illegally imported goods, and drug smuggling. Border control is virtually non-existent. Some of the resulting threats to Ethiopia include: the bleeding effect of Islamic fundamentalism to the Ethiopian Muslim community, the infiltration of terrorists into Ethiopian territory, and insurgencies by secessionist groups like the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF; Group Profile) and the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF; Group Profile forthcoming).
Arguably more important, morale in Ethiopia?s army is low. According to a recent country briefing, several generals, along with their subordinates, have hiked over the mountains into neighboring Eritrea to join the OLF, adding insult to injury in the face of the government.
The Impact of the Islamists Next-Door on Internal Affairs
Ethiopia is understandably nervous about the rise of Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC; Group Profile) militants at their border. Uncontrolled, they could tear Ethiopia apart by sponsoring terrorist attacks in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia?s capital, and in other towns. They could support Ethiopia?s various armed separatist groups and further contaminate relations between Ethiopia?s Muslims and Christians.
Some jihadists in Mogadishu are loyal to al-Qaeda and its leaders. Through various tapes and videos this year, these leaders have managed to turn the Horn of Africa into a third jihadist front, after Iraq and Afghanistan . Al-Qaeda loyalists in Somalia and Eritrea have released, for the first time, two mujahideen propaganda videos from their respective countries in November, highlighting the jihad on Ethiopia and calling on fresh recruits to join in the cause (Terror Web Watch). Although SCIC leaders deny this, they claim a large swath of Ethiopia. Their agenda calls for annexing eastern Ethiopia?s vast Ogaden region and northeastern parts of Kenya in order to fulfill their long time dream of a ?Greater Somalia.?
Addressing the genuine grievances of the Ogaden people, among other peoples, within a constitutional framework is necessary for the stability of Ethiopia. Ethiopia is facing tremendous pressures from a wide spectrum of actors both inside and outside of its borders. If the situation next-door does not cool down soon, Ethiopia?s internal issues are likely to multiply exponentially, catapulting the government into a domestic conflict that it is not ready to face.
