The Cote d?Ivoire armed forces issued a proclamation on December 12, 2006 based on ?irrefutable proof? that soldiers from the Defense and Security Forces (FDS) and unnamed civilians were plotting an ?imminent? coup and the assassination of President Laurent Gbagbo, the army chief of staff, and military brass. The timeframe was between December 12 and 17. As yet, no reports of arrests or detentions or military response have been made public.
Peace Process Crumbling
Cote d?Ivoire is notionally a bi-nation state, with New Forces rebels holding the north, the government-run south, and 10,000 UN Operation in C?te d?Ivoire (UNOCI) peacekeepers separating the two. The national fissure occurred in 2002 in a failed coup against Gbagbo and has percolated since. Gbagbo loyalists charge ?a military force present in Ivory Coast,? a veiled reference to France , for aiding rebels, who were behind a 2002 failed coup and who could be behind this plot.
Inter-ethnic clashes in the western region of Deukoue have left six people dead and many injured along the buffer zone. Perceived threats to national identities often spark such violence throughout the country. A curfew has since been mandated.
Political tensions have been high since November 1 because Prime Minister Charles Banny was given an increased role by the UN to help broker a peace deal, likely in response to Gbagbo?s rejection of the UN. Gbagbo threatened to report the International Working Group (IWG) to the UN Security Council and the African Union for ?serious abuses? likely in an effort to remove the UN presence, and thus the peace process, in Cote d?Ivoire. He has indicated wanting to formulate his own peace plan after consultation with ?a broad spectrum of Ivorian groups? (source). The UN move likely fueled the simmering quibbling between the two. Banny later made televised criticisms of Gbagbo, who fired the head of Ivorian Radio Television (RTI) in reprisal and put himself in charge of state-run media. Banny is tasked with bringing the rival sides toward disarmament and reunification under the UN-backed peace plan. Banny is also charged with organizing presidential elections?much to Gbagbo?s chagrin–by November 2007, despite having missed two previous deadlines. Banny?s supporters have taken to the streets most recently on December 6 over a toxic waste scandal linked to Gbagbo and his Young Patriot militants from September in relatively peaceful demonstrations, which police have responded to, sometimes lethally.
Truth in Broadcasting?
The coup allegation is widely believed to be false, as the army chief of staff backs Gbagbo. However, Banny?s promotion by the UN mandates he reign over the military, so some confusion over writ does exist. Gbagbo would like nothing more than to eradicate the New Forces, so blaming them for a coup?regardless of actual involvement–fits his needs. Similar allegations have been plentiful, political opponents have disappeared in the past, and political drama is a feature in the nation?s partisan media. It is likely an orchestration by Gbagbo to increase political tension in order to bolster his presidential control and exert his power. Regardless of who may have orchestrated a coup plot, Cote d?Ivoire can expect no progress toward peace unless and until those slowing the process are sanctioned, removed, or otherwise restrained. This may require international intervention in order to establish rule of law and legitimacy in Ivorian leadership. Until such time, multinational corporations would be well advised to postpone investment and travel to the country.