The polarization of the Bolivian populace threatens the near-term stability of the state and could lead to political unrest among disparate economic groupings and political parties. Previously, TRC acknowledged that Evo Morales? radical populist agenda ran contrary to the wishes of a sizable, yet minority, segment of the Bolivian population. Since taking office in late 2005, he has pushed his populist, pro-Venezuelan agenda successfully, achieving previously unexpected political victories and accelerating other desired political reforms. Some of these include:
? May 1, 2006: Morales signs a decree stating that all natural gas reserves were to be nationalized. The Bolivian military was ordered to occupy and secure energy installations. Foreign gas companies were given six months to renegotiate contracts or face expulsion from the country. On October 28, 2006, foreign oil companies wishing to continue operations in Bolivia conceded to Morales? demands and renegotiated contracts, giving the Bolivian government a majority of revenues obtained.
? November 2006: The US government extended a key trade agreement with the Bolivian government, demonstrating Morales? ability to acquire trade ?concessions? from the ?Yankee? US government.
? November 2006: The Inter-American Development Bank forgave hundreds of millions of dollars of Bolivia?s foreign debt.
? November 2006: Bolivia?s lower house of Congress, which is controlled by Morales? Movement Toward Socialism party, pushed through a stalled land bill, allowing the Bolivian government to seize private lands it deems unproductive and redistribute them to Bolivia?s landless poor. Bolivia?s Senate and business leaders continue to oppose the bill, complicating its final passage. Bolivia?s main opposition party, Podemos, continues to boycott Senate hearings.
Morales? proposed land reform bill will redistribute 48 million acres, or almost a fifth of Bolivia?s entire territory, within five years. Although land redistributed has consisted solely of government owned property, any move to seize privately owned territory, especially in Santa Cruz province, might result in the long-threatened succession of Bolivia’s most prosperous province.
Bolivia has long been economically divided with the wealthy minority inhabiting Bolivia’s agricultural lowlands and the poorer, Indian population, mostly confined to the western highlands. Morales has displayed his antipathy for the inhabitants of the lowlands by launching an agrarian reform campaign in Bolivia’s wealthiest and most anti-Morales city and province, Santa Cruz. Santa Cruz symbolizes Bolivia’s former adherence to neo-liberalist policies, “imposed” upon the people of Bolivia by the Washington consensus.
Future Potentials
Although Morales has achieved previously unthinkable political successes, his stubbornness and that of his supporters jeopardizes the stability of the state. Should Morales impose his sweeping land reform package by presidential decree, anti-Morales politicians and citizens will call for street demonstrations in an attempt to thwart Morales? presidential power. Additionally, Bolivia?s National Farming Confederation has threatened to form self-defense groups to deter government seizure of privately owned land.
The continued polarization of the Bolivian populace in addition to the growth of political opposition parties could lead to the division of the state along political lines. Although the potential for this dramatic occurrence is minimal, the mere suggestion demonstrates the political uncertainty in the air.
