As the Venezuelan presidential campaigns come to a close, analysts consider the future of Venezuela under President Hugo Ch?vez versus opposition candidate Manuel Rosales. Rosales, the governor of Venezuela?s, pro-Chavez Zulia region, has managed to unite a majority of Venezuela?s opposition.
The Ch?vez Years
Rosales has highlighted that the President is spending Venezuela?s oil wealth to aid other nations and support his populist agenda. Ch?vez was elected president in 1998 with a broad mandate to weed out corruption and empower the poor, but he rewrote the constitution to expand his powers and extend his term in office. Venezuela’s economic performance under Ch?vez has been mismanaged, particularly the nationalize oil sector. Economic disparities have polarized Venezuelans under Chavez.
By focusing mainly on self-preservation, Ch?vez has avoided objective, political debate and has created a deeply divided nation. Today, there are more than 200 political prisoners including present and former elected officials, former Supreme Court justices, journalists, military officers, trade union leaders, and members of civil society who champion democracy and human rights in Venezuela. Chavez’s opposition must balance improving their country with avoiding political imprisonment.
Rosales: The Opposition
Rosales has unified the Venezuelan opposition for the first time since Ch?vez came to power. The strength of his candidacy and ability to negotiate compromise with the leaders of the various factions of Venezuela?s opposition has created a united front against Ch?vez.
Rosales has targeted Venezuela?s poor, the core of Chavez?s constituency. Rosales is a self-declared populist with a moderate platform. Rosales has no dreams of a Bolivarian revolution, but he has campaigned for reducing taxes, placing more control in the hands of local government, and revitalizing Venezuela?s downtrodden private sector. His plan to decentralize Venezuela?s economy is perhaps the most important aspect of his platform. Venezuelan foreign direct investment is minimal beyond the energy sector, so Rosales desperately wants to make the rest of Venezuela?s economy attractive to foreign investors.
The opposition has uncovered corruption, nepotism, overspending on international ventures, and a failure of various social programs under Chavez’s leadership. Further, Rosales revealed that Ch?vez has done little to advance the life of Venezuela?s poor in nearly eight years in office. This is a major win for the opposition and could prove to strengthen ongoing resistance against a Ch?vez regime. Regardless of the electoral outcome, Venezuela?s opposition has unified, given them substantially more power than they have seen prior.
Beyond the Elections
Polls, which are questionably apolitical, continue to show Rosales trailing Ch?vez in the lead up to the December 2 vote. Fearing political unrest after the election, the US government issued a Warden Message for Venezuelans to stock up on basic supplies to weather the political fallout. Many analysts agree that the President is a charismatic leader, but when it comes to governing the country, he has yet to prove his worth. If reelected, Ch?vez will have to focus on domestic policies to pacify both his opposition and his own constituency.
