European authorities have been warned that al-Qaeda may be planning a large-scale attack against air and rail travel during the upcoming holiday season (source). Arab and Western intelligence agencies said that they have stepped up their security postures after identifying a recent increase in Jihadist communication transmissions about plans of a strike in Europe during the holidays. The intelligence agencies also referenced recent interrogations of captured al-Qaeda suspects in the Middle East in which additional information on a plot surfaced. According to an Arab official, one suspect disclosed that plans for repeating this summer?s transatlantic aviation plot from Heathrow were all prepared (source).
The holiday season presents an especially vulnerable period due to the increased travel traffic and the symbolic and economic corollary it could bring. Moreover, jihadist threats, mainly derived from expansive jihadi Internet sites, against Europe over the holiday season have been brought to authorities? attention before. Last year, TRC reported a threat of an attack issued by a member of the Bayt al-Maqdes Internet forum specifically directed against Italy (Terror Web Watch). “I say to you that the Sheikh Osama bin Laden, may God grant him honor, is in good health in a safe place, and we will be seeing him soon during the Christmas holidays in the land of the Christians after the coming strike in Europe, with Italy at the lead,? read one statement. This member, who called himself “Saif al-Adl from Peshawar,? expressed no group affiliation but claimed to know Osama bin Laden’s whereabouts, condition, and plans.
As this threat comes from sources beyond the customary online chat rooms, intelligence agencies throughout Europe have displayed greater unease. The interrogations revealed what seems to be a new strategic development by al-Qaeda. According to officers, for the past few months, al-Qaeda fighters have been ordered to pull out from the battlefields in Afghanistan and hand over the remaining fight to the Taliban . This includes well-trained fighters and logisticians who are being redeployed to their home countries. Some of these fighters have been captured by Arab intelligence agencies and are now telling puzzled officials that the orders were clear but limited. ?We don?t know why we were told to leave. The orders were very specific; leave Afghanistan now without wasting much time,? one suspect was quoted (source).
The ostensible reasons for this reallocation of resources appear to be the future targeting of Western interests across the Arab world and the stepping up of the insurgent pressure in Iraq . However, the question Western counter-terrorism agencies are now asking themselves is whether some these veteran fighters were ordered back home to await further directives, possibly in preparation for an attack in Europe. Knowing that numerous Europeans of Muslim origin have traveled to join al-Qaeda and to train in the frontlines of Afghanistan and Pakistan , a great possibility exists that these seasoned fighters may execute an attack on European soil. To that, main ?return routes? that officials have observed include the former Soviet Republics in Central Asia, from where eastern and ultimately western Europe can be readily reached.
MI5 Director-General Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller made a rare public appearance, illustrating a grim future for the UK and the European continent (source). She stated that the number of European youth who are recruited, radicalized, and indoctrinated is staggering. She also spoke of the return of extremists from foreign battlefields to carry out attacks on European soil at anytime. Various other senior intelligence officials have also joined the effort to bring public awareness to the fact that Europe will be battling this issue ?for generations to come? and that threats of chemical, biological, and nuclear attacks may not be far-off (see this WAR Report), as numerous attempts to obtain these sorts of weapons have showcased al-Qaeda?s ambition and intent (source).
In the near- to mid-term, the UK presumably runs the highest risk of being attacked, but recent reports attest that Germany , France , Denmark , and the Czech Republic also present potential targets, making pinpointing where and when the next strike will occur nearly impossible.
