The current security environment within Mexico?s Oaxaca City remains perilous, as leftist protestors, leftist guerrillas, pro-government militias, and Mexican Federal Forces vie for control of the city. Violence that initially subsided with the arrival of federal forces has since reemerged with specific violent elements unwilling to concede defeat. However, more disconcerting is the gradual expansion of leftist attacks on local Oaxaca City commercial infrastructure and Mexico City political and commercial buildings. TRC continues to anticipate further small-scale attacks as the Mexican presidential inauguration of president-elect Felipe Calderon draws closer. Additionally, the continued presence of Oaxaca State Governor Ulises Ruiz will intensify political polarization among the local populace and provoke further civil unrest and violence .
Leftist Protestors Shift Targeting Preferences
Since the beginning of November, leftist protestors using guerrilla tactics have perpetrated three violent attacks on political and commercial targets in Mexico City and Oaxaca City. Although these attacks have not caused physical injury or death, they demonstrate the evolving modus operandi of leftist forces.
On November 6, 2006, a coalition of five leftist guerrilla groups perpetrated a series of explosions in Mexico City, targeting the Federal Electoral Tribunal (aka Trife), a Canadian-owned Scotiabank branch in southern Mexico City, and the headquarters of the PRI (former ruling party) . Leftist guerrillas released an official statement the following day claiming that the attacks were perpetrated in support of leftist political endeavors in Oaxaca City. It remains unclear why guerrillas targeted the Canadian-owned Scotiabank; the bank has no connections to the current political turmoil in Oaxaca City.
On November 13, 2006, leftist youths in Oaxaca City firebombed a local McDonald?s restaurant in a Oaxaca City shopping center. The establishment was closed at the time of the attack, preventing potential injury to customers. However, substantial damage to the restaurant occurred. A similar attack targeted a Burger King located at the same shopping center the previous week. Again, the restaurant was closed at the time of the attack. Leftists throughout Latin America often target business establishments affiliated with western governments in protest against western consumerism and globalization. However, such attacks are a rarity in Mexico, as local populaces are often more accepting of western culture.
Near-Term Effects and Concerns
The potential for similar attacks throughout Mexico in coming weeks is high. Mexican government officials are increasingly concerned that civil unrest in Oaxaca City could breed similar protests and mass civil disobedience in Mexico City and other neighboring states. Mexico City, due to its polarized political atmosphere and disparate economic climate, has witnessed relatively peaceful protests in 2006 , with the most recent occurring after the Mexican presidential elections. TRC will continue monitoring political developments throughout Mexico, as the December 1 inauguration of President-elect Calderon draws closer.
