Pro-Democracy movements, so popular during the Rose and Orange Revolutions in Georgia and the Ukraine respectively, are alive and well in Central Asia. Many of the former Soviet republics have struggled with not just the notion and the appetite for democracy and economic reform, but also the implementation of it. However, democracy, even in its most rudimentary forms, has remained elusive throughout Central Asia. This region tends to be more autocratic in nature despite claims to the contrary. Western powers that are trying to gain influence in the region are forced to balance human rights concerns with strategic and economic opportunities.
Political dissent is often met with harsh responses from ruling governments. In Uzbekistan , for example, there was worldwide outrage over the killing of civilian protesters by security forces in Andijan in May 2005. Both the United States and the European Union subsequently imposed economic sanctions on Uzbekistan in response to its brutal repression of civilian protestors.
Kyrgyzstan has for some time towed a similar autocratic line. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the formation of the Kyrgyz state in 1991, President Askar Akayev governed the country uninterrupted for 15 years. Akayev was ousted in March 2005 and was succeeded by current President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. Bakiyev came into power pledging to reform the corrupt and stagnant government system. However, opposition to Bakiyev soon developed and largely coalesced around a group of parliamentarians and former Bakiyev cabinet officials. Displeasure with Bakiyev?s short reign has centered on specific allegations of organized crime affiliation, political corruption, and unfair regional imbalance of power and business prosperity.
Parliament opposition members, agitating for reform measures, pressed Bakiyev in the spring of 2006 to accept a constitutional proposal that would limit presidential power. Bakiyev initially rejected opposition reform demands prompted opposition demonstrations in Bishkek. Bakiyev claimed that this action was an attempt by the opposition to seize power, and he rejected this constitutional proposal.
The opposition parliamentarians called an emergency session of Parliament and managed to gain a simple majority in favor of the new constitution. Bakiyev promptly threatened to dissolve Parliament. However, as protests gradually became more violent, Parliament?s pro-government members were forced to back a compromised constitution proposal to placate the opposition. Bakiyev signed the constitution the following day, but it remains unclear if he will implement it.
However, the temporary truce between Bakiyev supporters and opposition party members remains fragile. The divisions within the country have many international observers predicting a civil war in the near-term. The current political crisis demonstrates the polarization of Kyrgyzstan with pro-government members relying on support from the southern regions and the opposition relying heavily on support from the north. Kyrgyzstan?s police forces are divided between the pro- and anti-government camps.
The US has a large stake in current internal Kyrgyzstan developments. Since the beginning of the US-led war on terrorism, the US military has used Kyrgyz territory to house an airbase used against Taliban and al-Qaeda militants. Similar base leases in other Central Asian states were not renewed by local governments.
Current political unrest and eventual democratic reforms could influence neighboring states. Civil and political unrest, stemming from dissatisfaction with corruption, poverty and infringement of human rights, already exists in the region. Unfortunately, any uprising will likely be repressed brutally. The reforms in Kyrgyzstan are a positive start in a difficult region?only time will tell if this type of reform will last or spread.
