It is perhaps with the proverbial tail between their legs that Georgian Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili has traveled to Moscow for the first high level talks since tensions boiled over on the diplomatic front between Georgia and Russia . Two months ago, relations, which were already strained, between Russia and Georgia became toxic over a spying scandal . The Georgian government arrested and expelled several Russian officers for allegedly spying in Georgia. The Russian government retaliated by imposing sanctions, including a travel ban and postal blockade, on Georgia. Many Georgians were also deported from Russia. These sanctions have hurt Georgia economically, and Russia has shown no signs of removing them or backing down, despite calls from the international community to do so.
The Georgian government complained that Russia was using bullying tactics and that they would not be cowed. Reality, however, has now set in. Georgia, being the weaker of the two states, cannot sustain the continued sanctions without serious economic consequences. Hence, it would appear that Georgia has blinked first in this confrontation by making the journey to Moscow where it is likely Bezhuashvili will ask for sanctions to be lifted. Bezhuashvili has made statements to the media that while Georgia may be pro-Western, this does not mean they are anti-Russian. They would prefer to see a partnership with Russia rather than an adverse relationship and that Russia use the carrot over the stick while conducting its affairs in the region. However, Bezhuashvili also points out that if Russia is intent on weakening Georgia, then a partnership will not be possible.
Georgia is desperate and needs to make amends with Moscow, which probably would prefer a weak and dependent Georgia. However, now Georgia has another problem. For some time, state-owned Gazprom has threatened to stop subsidizing natural gas to parts of the former Soviet Union and to bring the utility into line with market economics such as the cost of gas to Western Europe. So, it is probable that Gazprom will double the cost of gas to Georgia in 2007, something Georgia can ill afford. Georgia claims this move is political, but Russia claims it is purely economic and that they are no longer granting special concessions. Apparently, however, this policy is not consistent, as other satellite states have managed to negotiate prices in return for other concessions. While Georgia is trying to diversify its energy dependency, the country was hurt last winter when Russia cut off the oil supply after acts of sabotage. The Ukraine also had their supply cut off in a pricing dispute last winter; there is no doubt Russia would do so again. It is likely that Georgia will have to take more than an apologetic and conciliatory tone with Moscow. Georgia will likely have to make concessions to Moscow if they are to return to a cordial relationship. Since Georgia is still dependent on Moscow in so many areas, the power in this relationship all belongs to Moscow.
