Daniel Ortega, the former Sandinista guerrilla leader and leftist president, appears prepared to regain the political power he lost nearly 16 years ago at the hands of a US-backed rebellion. Current vote samplings, or quick counts, indicate Ortega holds a sizable lead over his nearest opponent, Eduardo Montealegre, a former investment banker and current finance minister in President Enrique Bolanos?s administration. Nicaraguan election laws require a candidate to secure at least 35 percent of the vote and hold a five-point advantage over his closest opponent to avoid a runoff election. The Nicaraguan-based Civic Group for Ethics and Transparency has given Ortega more than 39 percent of the vote, compared to 29.5 percent for Montealegre, with 60 percent of the polling stations counted as of November 7. Notwithstanding a remarkable Montealegre surge, Ortega will become the next president of Nicaragua, a slightly different man than when he left office in 1990?or so it appears at this time.
US Fears Leftist Impediment to Economic Interests
The Bush administration?s continued antipathy toward Daniel Ortega and its perceived impression that any Ortega government will bear similar hallmarks to the Ortega government of 1985-1990 has left the US government deeply opposed to an Ortega victory. Specific members within the Bush administration, including Paul Trivelli, the US ambassador to Nicaragua, have threatened to withhold aid to the country should Ortega be elected. Additionally, millions of dollars in foreign investments, particularly, from US-based manufacturers, could exit the country and/or choose states in South America perceived as more business friendly than an Ortega led-state. These fears are largely prompted by Ortega?s former record as president of Nicaragua, during which time the Nicaraguan government walked a pro-Soviet economic line, setting price controls and confiscating private property to distribute to Nicaragua?s peasants.
Ortega and CAFTA
However, Ortega?s public statements indicate that the former leftist guerrilla may no longer hold the same ideological beliefs he formally held, publicly disclosing the mistakes his administration made while in office. Additionally, Ortega has pledged to continue all free-trade agreements with the US, while simultaneously expressing his desire to modify the Central America Free Trade Agreement slightly. The modification of CAFTA has drawn the sharpest US criticism, as such remarks are generally perceived as political cover for more sinister plans when Ortega is formally elected to office. His exact intentions regarding the future of CAFTA in Nicaragua are unclear.
Ortega?s public relationship with Venezuela?s President Hugo Chavez has likewise caused additional consternation among several South American governments and the US. After brief leftist successes throughout Latin America during the end of 2005 and beginning of 2006, political tides throughout the continent appeared to be shifting away from leftist candidates. An Ortega victory, however, would halt this recession, perhaps reinvigorating a stumbling movement.
It remains to be determined what type of government Ortega will formulate. All indications suggest it will be far less revolutionary than that which existed after the overthrow of the Somoza dynasty. However, a leftist tilt is still likely, as Ortega?s campaign has focused on the plight of Nicaragua?s impoverished communities and the dramatic income disparities that currently exist in the country. Additionally, it seems likely that Ortega will gradually diminish the role of foreign corporations within Nicaragua, avoiding the nationalization of private industry but limiting foreign control of Nicaragua?s natural resources and manufacturing industry.
