As summed up in Osama bin Laden?s infamous, yet pithy, ?bleed until bankrupt? statement in 2004, al-Qaeda and its affiliates have noticeably pursued operations aimed at weak points in the global economy. Bin Laden has urged terrorists to attack oil infrastructure with the goal of driving up the price of oil to $100 a barrel. His supporters have responded with plots and operations in Saudi Arabia , Yemen , and Iraq . Egyptian terrorist franchises have struck that country?s tourist industry, with an aim to weaken a crucial stream of revenue for a government they despise. The insurgency in Iraq has also demonstrated through their publications that they are calibrating attacks not just for their cost to in Coalition casualties but in dollars.
In addition to the oil industry, terrorists based in the Middle East and Horn of Africa also have immediate access to another international economic point of vulnerability: commercial shipping. Bin Laden may have been alluding to the potential economic damage of attacking shipping in this area when, after the attack on the French tanker Limburg off the coast of Yemen, he issued a warning that terrorists would target the West?s ?economic lifelines.?
The Middle East and Horn of Africa have its share of vital shipping infrastructure, including ?choke points? at Bab el-Mandeb, in the Suez Canal, and the Straits of Hormuz and the heavily active port of Dubai. It would take large, complex attacks to obstruct traffic for any length of time, yet smaller-scale attacks would have the desired result of raising oil prices and compelling increased expenditures on security.
Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal
Bab el-Mandeb, ?the Gate of Tears? in Arabic, provides the entry way into the Red Sea to access the Suez Canal. It is bordered on one side by Djibouti and Eritrea and the other by Yemen. Bab el-Mandeb, whose western shipping lane is 16 miles wide, would be difficult for terrorist groups to obstruct for any length of time, especially with the military presence in Djibouti. However, a disruption?such as in the narrow, two-mile wide eastern lane, which skirts Yemen–could result in the diversion of some traffic around the Horn of Africa, creating immense increases in costs. Because the strait serves as a vital passageway for more than three million barrels of oil a day, oil prices would rise at least temporarily even without a substantial disruption to oil traffic. Further, terrorist attacks in the strait, especially a campaign of them, would drive up costs for anything traversing the Suez Canal.
The Suez Canal is a harder target than the shipping lanes in Bab el-Mandeb. Egypt bears total responsibility for the security of the Suez Canal, while Bab el-Mandeb passes through territorial waters of weaker nations like Yemen and Eritrea into open waters. The Suez is an economic lifeline to Egypt, making the Canal an appealing target to terrorists in that country and a focus of Egyptian military and national security efforts. Egypt has dealt with potential disruptions?a sinking ship, oil leaks, etc.–in the Suez Canal with remarkable speed.
Port of Dubai
The United Arab Emirates has stayed out of Jihadist crosshairs by remaining neutral on flash point issues. However, that dynamic has changed since the country began offering considerable (and conspicuous) support to the US military for its operations in Iraq. The port of Dubai is the most frequented port for the US Navy outside of the United States (source). Its Jebel Ali port is the only carrier-capable port in the Arabian Gulf and serves as an important liberty port for troops serving in Iraq. The impact of a terrorist attack on the port of Dubai would have costly ramifications for commercial industries, which rely on the sizeable port.
Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz garners the most attention in the region as a maritime choke point because 20-25 percent of the world?s oil production passes through it. However, in some ways, this area is the least vulnerable to disruption by terrorist attack of those discussed herein, if only for the sheer amount of military resources focused on it. While Iran holds its strategic position on this vital passageway as one of its trump cards in its simmering standoff with western powers, the amount of focus and value Iran places on the Strait would mean quick action and incongruous cooperation with western powers, which also operate in the area, in the event of a terrorist attack. Still, as with the other points of vulnerability discussed, a terrorist incident would yet drive up security costs and at least temporarily increase oil prices.
Increased incidents of terrorism-related piracy worldwide and successful and disrupted terrorist plots suggest that al-Qaeda and affiliates have identified the vulnerability of key waterways and ports around the globe; to their convenience, some of the most crucial are located in a region where they have a concentration of support and activity.
