A recent upsurge in violence in Sri Lanka between Tamil Tiger rebels and the government suggests that the two sides are on a war footing that may scuttle upcoming peace talks in Geneva this weekend and may lead to a new wave of fighting in the country.
Breaking a period of relative calm, Tiger attacks and Tiger-government clashes have wrenched the nation, with at least 250 killed in the last week, all set against the backdrop of more than 1,000 killed since April. Some 220,000 people, mostly Tamils and Muslims in the north and east of the country, have been displaced by the fighting.
In ratcheting up violence, the Tigers have mounted more deadly and invasive attacks, apparently regaining their war footing after suffering significant territorial losses and high casualties since April. Early last week, the Tigers rammed an explosives-laden truck into a military bus in the center of the country, killing at least 95 sailors and wounding more than 150 (Terrorist Incident forthcoming). The rebel attack was the deadliest since the imposition of a 2002 cease-fire. In a second major attack last week, the Tigers radically departed from their traditional battlefronts and targets in the north and east of the country and mounted a seaborne assault against a naval base in the southern port city of Galle (Terrorist Incident forthcoming), the heart of Sri Lanka’s tourist industry and home to hundreds of expatriates from Europe and Asia. The attack reportedly involved five boats disguised as fishing boats that attempted to breach the heavily-guarded port. Two of the boats, apparently laden with explosives, detonated after ramming two navy craft. One soldier was reportedly killed. The attack coincides with the beginning of the tourist high season.
This upsurge in Tiger violence likely has two central goals:
? Strengthening the Tigers’ negotiating position before talks with the government.
? Damaging Sri Lanka’s tourist sector and economy.
Forecast
The intense violence Sri Lanka has witnessed of late is likely to abate during the Geneva talks, with sporadic lower-level attacks a possibility, but the prospects for significant progress and a durable ceasefire remain dim considering the underlying bellicosity of leaders on both sides.
The hard-line Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse has been tepid to peacemaking, and, according to The Economist, on October 16, he told an envoy from Japan that he would escalate the war against the Tigers if his troops were attacked. The Tigers’ leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran, is also cool to peacemaking and apparently welcomes a fight. The Economist reports that Prabhakaran prevented Tamils backing the more conciliatory candidate, Ranil Wickremesinghe, in elections last year from voting, thus aiding in Rajapakse’s election. Add to this the current provocative ferocity of militancy on both sides, and it is difficult to envision either side pursuing peace in good faith when they apparently believe that war is an advantageous tact. However, in a promising late development, Rajapakse’s ruling party, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, received support and solidarity from the opposition United National Party, led by Wickremesinghe, for talks with the Tigers. This move strengthens the government’s political mandate for, and ability to deliver on, negotiating points with the Tigers, particularly in power-sharing arrangements. However, it remains to be seen if this government unity will encourage peacemaking on either side.
If peace talks break down or arrive at an impasse, both camps will likely intensify operations, with the heaviest fighting likely centered in the north and east of the country. But, the Tiger attack on Galle may represent the opening salvo of a Tiger push on the south and the targeting of other cities or assets integral to the Sri Lankan tourist industry and economy.
