Thailand (Country Report) remains remarkably peaceful and stable, a month after a bloodless coup, led by General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra . Recent reports have described a general business-as-usual attitude among regular Thais and tourists. The junta has installed an interim prime minister, and a cabinet of seasoned leaders has been formed, both bolstering confidence in the country?s political and economic stability. However, the continued curtailment of certain civil liberties as well as the potential that the junta?s timetable for a transition to democracy may slip could stoke a perception of junta power mongering. These are the underlying currents that may wear upon Thai society and energize rebellion around small but building pro-democracy, civil society, and pro-Thaksin elements. The change in leadership also brings with it a promising shift in the country?s counterinsurgency strategy in the south, as General Sonthi?s more engaging and conciliatory approach to dealing with the insurgents is adopted.
The junta has set a timetable for a transition back to full democracy and civilian governance by October 2007, though potential wrangling over the redrafting of the constitution could cause that timeframe to slip. The junta has begun to install an interim government, appointing former General Surayud Chulanont as Prime Minister. Surayud had previously commanded a Special Forces unit that took part in the suppression of pro-democracy protesters in 1992, a year after Thailand?s last coup. The appointment of a former general as the civilian interim prime minister has added to concerns that the junta will not move as swiftly toward full civilian rule as had been hoped. Surayud?s cabinet is stocked with bureaucrats and economic leaders, likely chosen in and effort to bolster confidence in government competency, economic stewardship, and a pro-business, and investor-friendly disposition following months of political instability and economic stagnation. While it remains to be seen how independent the Surayud government will be in relation to the Sonthi junta, the cabinet complexion seems good for business. Overall, the political stability, security, and business/investor-friendly government bode well for the Thailand?s economic climate.
Thailand has, however, taken an economic hit because of the coup in the area of its economic and aid relationship with the US. Because of the coup the US has cut $24 million in military aid and is contemplating additional sanctions. Further, the coup has torpedoed US-Thailand discussions on a free-trade pact, as the US will negotiate such an agreement only with elected governments.
In one of its first initiatives, the interim government has made healthcare free, eliminating the small payments required under the universal healthcare plan introduced by Thaksin in 2001?a scheme, along with other social welfare programs directed at the poor, that helped Thaksin cultivate and consolidate his powerbase among Thailand?s rural poor. As an earlier initiative, this policy shift is likely an attempt by the government to usurp and co-opt Thaksin support, and potential anti-junta rebellion from Thailand?s poor. In a similar move, Surayud traveled to the Thaksin stronghold in the northeastern provinces to engage and shore up support from rural farmers and the poor.
Amid a backdrop of continued curtailment of certain civil liberties, such as a ban on political gatherings, media restrictions, and martial law, the early rumblings of pro-democracy rebellion and unrest can be heard. Civil society groups have quietly begun to organize dissenting actions, and, in possibly the first anti-junta violence, arsonists attacked five schools in the north, likely in protest to the closure of 400 community radio stations which, in addition to mainstream broadcasts, had served as a medium for Thaksin?s populist messages to his powerbase among the rural poor.
?Let?s Talk?
With the ouster of Thaksin, and Sonthi?s ascendancy and influence, the government is shifting its counterinsurgency strategy against a constellation of Muslim insurgent groups fighting for autonomy in the southern majority Malay Muslim provinces of Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat . Muslims in the south?a majority in the southernmost provinces, but a minority vis-?-vis Thailand?s 90% Buddhist makeup?are aggrieved with feelings of second-class citizenry, perceiving fewer educational and job opportunities than Buddhists. The brutal insurgency has killed more than 1,700 people. Lieutenant General Viroach Buacharoon, security chief for the region, said that more than 10 insurgent groups were involved in the violence.
In a countermanding of the Thaksin government?s aggressive and uncompromising counterinsurgency strategy, the Thai military will now engage in talks with insurgent groups, a strategy publicly championed by Sonthi in contradiction to Thaksin, following his appointment by Thaksin to head counterinsurgency operations.
Thaksin?s iron-fist counterinsurgency policies are blamed for exacerbating the conflict. Thaksin?s government had repeatedly rejected opportunities for talks with insurgents, deployed thousands of troops to the south, ordered manhunts for insurgents, and imposed draconian laws. The government had also sanctioned the security forces? use of phone taps, detention of suspects without charge, imposition of curfews, and bans on meetings, all resulting in an increase of insurgent violence. Thaksin was detested among Muslims in the south, and many Muslims believed that resolving the conflict was impossible with Thaksin in power.
The strategy shift to attempt to address the insurgents? root grievances, particularly with General Sonthi?a Muslim advocating political engagement and negotiation?as its champion, could offer an advantageous shot at quelling the insurgency. The new strategy may already be gaining some traction, with several insurgent groups recently approaching the military for talks, though the interactions are at this point low-level. However, it remains unclear if the more powerful insurgent groups will come to the negotiating table, and if some major groups are even interested in talks. General Viroach has also said that for talks to progress, insurgents must demonstrate their good faith and commitment to the process by observing a month-long ceasefire.
Forecast
Thailand will likely remain politically and economically stable in the near term as a result of Surayud?s competent interim cabinet and its investor and business friendly disposition, the government?s moves to ingratiate themselves to Thaksin?s underclass powerbase and potential anti-junta rebel vanguard, and the military?s new advantageous strategy of political engagement and negotiation with insurgents in the south. However, anti-junta, pro-Thaksin, pro-democracy, and civil society elements will likely grow more activist and potentially violent if the junta and the interim government actions are perceived as power mongering or persecutory, junta-imposed restrictions on civil liberties are seen as gratuitous or lingering, and the timetable for a transition to full democracy and civilian rule unduly slips. Further, if the military-insurgent talks do not reach a high enough level among both camps, or simply break down, disillusioned insurgents may redouble rebel violence.
