The United Nations has approved targeted sanctions against North Korea ? blocking trade in conventional military, nuclear, and luxury item sales to the regime. The sanctions are intended to inhibit and punish the North Korean elite, but their use also sends a clear message to Tehran and other would-be nuclear proliferators: the pursuit of nuclear weapons leads to economic restrictions and isolation.
International Pariahs
The Iranian and North Korean nuclear crises share similar dynamics: both governments are driven by a desire for respect internationally, especially from the United States; both governments believe the US is intent on regime change in their respective countries; and both governments are facing a multi-lateral framework opposed to their development of nuclear weapons, but are buffered from aggressive counter-measures by P-5 powers, Russia and China . Having shared the ?international pariah? spotlight in previous years, the two countries have learned from each other, pursuing brinkmanship to gauge the reactions of the international community and red-lines of key governments.
However, there are important differences between the countries, which indicate the use of multi-lateral sanctions against Iran, could have a significant impact upon their decision-making ? likely more so than North Korea. Iran is not a failed tyrannical state mired in diplomatic and economic isolation. In spite of political repression and systemic corruption, the Islamic Republic still maintains a democratic form of government in which the civic organizations can influence government policies. Furthermore, the Iranian citizenry is intensely frustrated with the government?s inability to promote economic growth, and it is not unanimously supporting a combative foreign policy against the West. UN sanctions against Iran ? ones resembling North Korea sanctions and fully enforced by Russia and China – could indeed exacerbate Iran?s economic woes and potentially create enough internal pressure to influence decision-making concerning their nuclear program.
Tehran Indicates No Fear of Sanctions
Thus far, judging by the comments of Iran?s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad, Tehran seems undeterred by the Security Council?s response to North Korea. The Iranian decision to proceed with uranium enrichment at indigenous nuclear plants appears unaffected. Though clearly, Tehran will be watching closely the degree to which China and Russia enforce the North Korea sanctions as a gauge for any future Security Council sanctions imposed on Iran.
