Nigeria is Africa?s biggest oil producer and the world?s eighth largest oil exporter, so an active militant organization garners significant attention when it targets the infrastructure that sustains the country. The Niger Delta, specifically, accounts for all crude oil output for Nigeria. However, the militants contend that the oil firms have not distributed wealth fairly among the indigenous populations that inhabit the oil-rich lands, predominantly in the Niger Delta. Militants shut down a sixth of Nigeria?s oil production in February . As a result of the instability and supply disruptions in Nigeria, along with other global crises, oil prices have soared in 2006.
Raids
On October 10, armed militants took over a military base, taking ?quite a number? of soldiers hostage and occupying a Shell facility, in Bayelsa state (Terrorist Incident forthcoming). The hostage taking was likely a reprisal attack. The Nigerian military, equipped with gun boats and helicopter gunships, carried out a series of raids against Niger Delta oil militants in retaliation for the deaths of 17 soldiers about a week prior (Terrorist Incident forthcoming). The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND; Group Profile) militants killed nine soldiers near Shell?s Ekulama oil flow station, west of Port Harcourt, and seized two military gunboats (Terrorist Incident forthcoming). MEND also killed two soldiers and six sailors in a separate campaign (Terrorist Incident forthcoming). Another 10 soldiers were killed in a barge convoy in the Cawthorne Channel in Rivers state on October 3 (Terrorist Incident forthcoming). The Nigerian military allegedly razed at least one village in the more recent campaign. No reliable sources have reported on casualty rates from the raids; in fact, the military, via spokesman Sagir Musa, denies the raids took place. MEND announced in an email that it is considering reciprocal action.
Military brass had been summoned to Abuja, although it is unclear if the meetings were about the escalading violence in the Delta area.
Hostages
Seven foreign nationals?including four Britons, an Indonesian, a Malaysian, and a Romanian?continue to be held hostage from a raid on ExxonMobil?s Eseakpan residential compound in Ekat town in Akwa Ibom state in which two Nigerian security guards were killed . This may have been a new development, in that militants snatched the seven inside a compound. These kinds of coordinated raids have been witnessed elsewhere, specifically in Saudi Arabia: the Riyadh compound bombing in 2003 and the attempted suicide attack on the Abqaiq oil processing complex in 2006 . Consequently, this development in Nigeria should prompt security officials responsible for compound security to readdress their contingency plans and fortify physical security. Further, this is a disconcerting development because the state had not witnessed the same violence as the western states had prior to this kidnapping. However, kidnappings are not uncommon. In early July, a retired naval officer working for Conoil was snatched in Bayelsa state . Michael Loss was kidnapped in the Niger Delta?s Bayelsa state on July 6 and was released safely four days later . Some 25 Royal Dutch Shell employees in the Niger Delta were taken hostage and subsequently released on October 4 . In August, 18 oil workers were snatched in eight incidents , and all have since been released, save one Nigerian who was killed in a botched rescue attempt.
Abductions of oil workers are not unusual in the Niger Delta, and hostages are rarely hurt. They are, instead, used as bargaining chips for government concessions to the local populaces. Conversely, they can be used as leverage against oil firms, which often quietly pay ransoms for their employees? release, perpetuating the practice of kidnappings in the Niger Delta.
The Way Ahead
The future in Nigeria looks bleak. The root causes of the militancy?poverty, corruption, lawlessness, economic disparity–have not been rectified, and locals blame the government and foreign oil companies. Black market oil sales, smuggling, and ransom payments lure the disenfranchised with promise of financial wealth. The military and oil companies must resolve the spiraling security climate not only between themselves but also with the militants. Oil firms do not favor harsh military reprisals for militants? actions, as that will exacerbate simmering tensions and put expatriates? lives in danger. The military favors draconian measures to discourage militant attacks that specifically target military personnel. This is on par with President Olusegun Obasanjo?s pronouncement in September to crack down on subversive groups in the Niger Delta. Such a plan would require a significantly larger military presence in the Delta, which is far more conducive to insurgent strike tactics than traditional military combat. Regardless, a military campaign, not coincidentally in retribution for the MEND attacks, is likely the course ahead. (Please review the July 20 Intel Report for TRC?s anticipated outcomes in the short-term.) The British government has advised against unessential travel to the Niger Delta. Similarly, the US Consulate released a Warden Message on October 4 that the threat to American citizens does not seem to be subsiding. Armed attacks?particularly in Rivers State and specifically on Bonny Island–should be anticipated from now through the 2007 elections , as politicians side with and encourage armed groups, like MEND, to ensure their victory.