It seems like the safe word to use when discussing nuclear capacities in the Middle East nowadays is ?energy.? Egypt already broke the ice by reviving its nuclear energy program last month ; Yemen?s President Ali Abdullah Saleh took advantage of this Pandora?s Box by announcing that Yemen ?will generate electric energy from nuclear energy in cooperation with the United States [Country Profile] and Canada [Country Profile]? on October 2. Yemen generates electricity via liquefied gas and plans to materialize their increasing need for power by developing nuclear reactors. Like Egypt, Yemen established a national agency specifically tailored to the peaceful research and development of nuclear energy that has not yielded effective results.
As a member of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), Yemen has the right to produce nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. However, the concern lies in two areas: (1) the abundance of terrorists and their networks located in Yemen, and (2) the absence of international responsibility on behalf of Yemen to safeguard its nuclear facilities. If the international community is concerned over Egypt?s nuclear program and the possibility of nuclear materials getting into the hands of terrorists in Egypt, then Yemen?s program should be raising the largest and brightest red flags in the global community. Yemen?s record of terrorist attacks coupled with the abundance of al-Qaeda and other terrorist operatives in the country poses an imminent threat to their nuclear energy developments. In Yemen?s defense, Canada and the US are willing to cooperate with Yemen to ensure a peaceful program in addition to the World Bank?s US$50 million contribution to Yemen?s nuclear agency. However, it will take more than Western aid and supervision to ensure that Yemen?s program stays out terrorists? hands.
Yemen?s Nuclear History and Development Timeline
Yemen?s energy crisis is a known phenomenon to the international community; however, the nation?s interest in developing nuclear capacities to amend this deficiency is relatively new. In addition, this proposal comes at an interesting time: Egypt declared last month that it will restore its nuclear program for the peaceful development of nuclear energy. The following is a brief timeline highlighting Yemen?s nuclear developments and activities prior to President Saleh?s announcement:
? February 1999 ? Yemen established the National Nuclear Energy Agency responsible for obtaining and developing nuclear energy. The cabinet emphasized that nuclear energy will be used for peaceful and development purposes (source).
? December 2002 ? Some 15 scud missiles and conventional warheads were seized on the unflagged North Korean freighter So San en route to Yemen from North Korea. The warheads were hidden beneath cement sacks. This discovery calls into question the legality of the consignment. Yemen admitted to the shipment, saying it was for their military and meant for defense purposes (source).
? May 2006 ? The World Bank approved US$ 50 million for improving Yemen?s power sector, specifically the development of the Yemen Public Electricity Corporation. Though the Bank did not mention ?nuclear? energy, the President?s nuclear ambitions certainly fit under the World Bank?s ?power sector? umbrella (source).
? August 2006 ? Yemeni Ambassador to Canada Abdul-Wali Nasher discussed ?energy cooperation? with Canadian Minister of Natural Resources Gary Lunn. Their meeting centered on the dynamics of generating electricity using peaceful nuclear energy. The Minister relayed his country?s ?readiness? to offer support for Yemen?s program. Yemen has not since engaged in any materializing talks with Canada or the US (source).
Dynamics of Yemen?s Nuclear Program:
How likely is this development?
Previous talks of Yemen?s nuclear energy and research proposal may have been perceived as ?political propaganda? leading up to last month?s presidential elections. However, now that the competition is over, it is clear that President Saleh is serious and determined about his plans. Yemen has been interested in acquiring nuclear warheads for Yemen?s military (from North Korea, nonetheless, with whom Yemen has signed contracts in regards to the nuclear shipments ?some time ago?). This does not mean that Yemen plans to develop nuclear weapons, but rather terrorists who could gain access to nuclear materials could use the material for massive attacks. Yemen will have to make the case that it is taking active steps toward safeguarding its soon-to-be nuclear energy generating facility.
Terrorists Gaining Access
It is not hard to imagine how excited terrorists in Yemen must have been to hear that the nation will have a nuclear facility in the near future. Given al-Qaeda?s and other groups? increasingly sophisticated attack methods, it would be a matter of time before a terrorist would get his/her hands on nuclear materials, like enriched uranium. Intelligence agencies have learned that terrorists use a broad spectrum of methods to conduct their attacks. For instance, terrorists may attempt to infiltrate nuclear reactor sites by disguising themselves as employees, or they may be hired legitimately, in order to gain access from the inside. They can coerce employees to get the materials they need through bribery. Depending on the level and sophistication of physical security, terrorists may use two-step attack tactics, as was used on the two oil facilities attacks in Yemen last month and in numerous attacks against oil infrastructures in Saudi Arabia . Denying terrorists access to nuclear weapons and weapons-grade materials in Yemen will be a test to the nation?s willpower and determination to develop nuclear energy ?peacefully.?
Steps to Ensure Safe Program
Beefing up its national security and ratifying international nuclear safety conventions are just two ways Yemen can help safeguard their nuclear facilities from terrorists. Although Yemen is a member of the IAEA and party to the NPT, Yemen has yet to recognize any nuclear safety convention. In its defense, Yemen was not expected to ratify such treaties since it had never attempted to build a nuclear reactor. Now, however, Yemen should be expected to do so. The Conventions on Nuclear Safety, Physical Protection of Nuclear Material, and especially Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism should all at least be signed, if not ratified, by Yemen.
Obliging the government and rendering it responsible for exercising effective remedies in deterring terrorists from gaining access to nuclear materials is a major step in safeguarding Yemen?s program and ensuring that it remain peaceful. Yemen should also keep its project discoveries as transparent as possible, ie disclose all reports, welcome inspections, and maintain disclosed details to IAEA. Yemen, along with the greater Middle East, should expect a high level of transparency requested, if not required, in order to conduct any ?rightful? nuclear program effectively and successfully. This scrutiny may not necessarily be requested because the government is suspect, as is the case with Iran or North Korea, but simply because of the volume of terrorists and their networks existing in the region.
