Concern over Iran?s growing influence in the Middle East and the prospect of a future, nuclear armed Iran may bring together two un-natural allies: Saudi Arabia and Israel . Despite their contrary religious and ideological perspectives, these two US allies share the common desire for stability in the region (see this WAR Report).
The Iranian dilemma manifests itself in different ways for either country. For Saudi Arabia, the rise of a Shiite ?crescent? across the Middle East, emanating from a Tehran epicenter, is a threat to the Sunni Saudi Arabia?s power and influence in the region and a potential destabilizing factor within the Kingdom itself. For Israel, Iran?s substantial support for Hezbollah and Palestinian terrorist groups presents a pervasive security threat. A nuclear armed Iran will provide a protective umbrella for a more aggressive Iranian foreign policy and exacerbate the respective problems for both Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Basis for a Relationship
Saudi Arabia is a traditional adversary of Iran. Both governments consider themselves guardians of the Islamic faith, and Iran targeted Saudi Arabia during the 1980s for its violent export of the Islamic revolution. Sunni Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, perceive the rise of Iranian influence in the Middle East to be a destabilizing factor for the region. Iran?s connection to Shiite militias in Iraq , as well as their financial and military support of Palestinian terrorist groups and Hezbollah, works against the interest of regional stability. Moreover, as the majority in the Arab world perceives Hezbollah as the victor in its recent conflict with Israel (see this WAR Report), Iran?s regional popularity and influence have grown significantly. Likewise, Iran is a clear threat to Israel. The Islamic Republic funds and arms Israel?s terrorist adversaries, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has publicly stated his interest in seeing Israel ?wiped off the map.?
In sum, Iran and Israel share a common enemy and a common goal of regional stability. The United States will play off this alignment of interests in building its coalition of Middle East states opposed to Iran?s nuclear program and may also encourage Saudi Arabia to play a more active, moderating role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Potential Indicators of an Unstated Alliance
Saudi Arabia is not at peace with Israel, and their governments have not had official, public contact. Moreover, the Wahhabi Islam embraced and propagated by Saudi Arabia has fueled the radical Islamic movement that is virulently anti-Israel, and Saudi Arabia was the prime financial supporter of Hamas until 2003. However, two recent events indicate Saudi Arabia and Israel may covertly coalesce around mutual interests.
First, Saudi Arabia joined Israel?s Arab allies?Jordan and Egypt –in initially condemning Hezbollah?s July 12 cross-border raid into Israel as a reckless, provocative attack , though all three would eventually condemn Israel for a disproportionate response in Lebanon.
Second, a series of articles in Jewish news sources reported an alleged meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and a high-level Saudi official, potentially King Abdullah. There remains confusion over where, when, and if such a meeting took place; the Saudi government flatly denied a meeting occurred, and Israeli officials have issued a ?no comment? type of response. However, the most revealing response on the issue came from Olmert: ?I am very impressed with different processes and statements that are connected to Saudi Arabia, some that have been stated publicly and others as well. I am very impressed with King Abdullah?s wisdom and sense of responsibility? (source).