After 20 years of dormancy, Egypt has revived its civil nuclear program with plans for a nuclear power station on the Mediterranean coast. On September 19, 2006, the President?s son and ruling officer of the National Democratic Party (NDP), Gamal Mubarak, urged the nation to consider developing nuclear energy. In his address to the delegates of the NDP, Mubarak reasoned, ?The whole world is looking at alternative energy ? so should Egypt ? including nuclear? (source). Based on Egypt?s peaceful history of nuclear research and development, there is little reason to believe that the nation?s new proposal will suddenly incorporate a military element, i.e. development of a nuclear bomb. However, no matter how peaceful and cooperative Egypt?s plan for a nuclear power station, it is likely to draw international attention to their efforts and most likely result in unwarranted regional conflict.
Working in Egypt?s Favor
Following his son?s announcement, President Hosni Mubarak confirmed Egypt?s interest in the use of alternative energy. He called on a ?serious dialogue? to consider the ?clean and cheap sources of energy available through nuclear technologies? (source). Egypt has several important factors working in its favor that should expedite its desire for constructing a nuclear power plant in El-Dadaa, within the next 10 years. As a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Egypt enjoys the right to build nuclear power stations, however, under international supervision. As a member state, Egypt is banned from developing nuclear weapons.
Since 1995, Egypt has been pushing for a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free-Zone (WMDFZ) in the Middle East; however, its efforts made little to no breakthrough with Israel or Iran . Nonetheless, Egypt has enjoyed a reputation of calling for a non-nuclear Middle East for over a decade. This ?good behavior? will be at the forefront of Egypt?s reports to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In fact, in February 2005, the IAEA disclosed that is was investigating Egypt?s nuclear activities; Egypt had conducted atomic research, which ?did not aim to develop nuclear weapons and did not include uranium enrichment? (source). This positive standing with the IAEA is sure to ease the way for Egypt?s peaceful project. The international community?s concern does not rest in Egypt?s motives for researching nuclear energy; it lies, largely, in the region?s reaction and response.
A Regional Catch-22
Egypt will benefit greatly from this profitable endeavor. A certain level of prestige comes along with the successful embarkation toward nuclear capabilities. If Egypt?s project goes as planned, the nation?along with its leaders–will enjoy an elite status in the international realm and serve as an example that the development of nuclear power for peaceful means is possible in the Middle East. Additionally, Egypt is not alone in its desire to build a nuclear energy plant in the region. Turkey has also stressed the need for nuclear power as an alternative energy source. Turkey, also a NPT member state, which consumes 700,000 barrels of oil per day and only produces 50,000 per day, has made a good case for going ahead with its plans to build three power plants by 2015 (source).
However, with the international attention Iran is getting from its refusal to stop enriching uranium, Egypt?s and Turkey?s announcements of introducing more nuclear programs into the region (regardless of its peaceful intentions) raises high alerts among the international community. Countries? proposals will likely raise eyebrows among its regional brothers and could possibly result in a nuclear arms race. Neither Egypt nor Turkey has talked about enriching uranium, which is used in the process of creating nuclear bombs. However, the fear is in their capacity to enrich uranium and/or produce nuclear weapons should they choose to in the future. In addition, Israel?s consistent rejection to Egypt?s quest for a WMDFZ in the Middle East provides for an interesting point: the significant progress in civilian nuclear power in Egypt could be a means for narrowing the technological gap with Israel and working toward the restoration of balance with it.
Although Israel has not officially commented on either Egypt?s or Turkey?s plans to build nuclear power plants, there is little Israel, or even the US , can do to to stop either country from developing their programs. As long as the NPT member-states cooperate the IAEA?s requests and with their international obligations as signatories to the NPT, there is no reason why they cannot move forward with their programs. The fear is not in the countries? intentions, but in the potential for their research to escalate into uranium enrichment for the purposes of strategic balance and to serve as a deterrent against Israel. If this were to happen, the region would face a dangerous arms race that could result in information and materials leaking into the hands of terrorists.
