Last Ramadan was the bloodiest in recent history. In Iraq, the first day of the Muslim holy month opened with a devastating attack on the International Red Cross and Iraqi police stations, killing 42 people and wounding 200. Later in the month came two simultaneous bombings at Istanbul synagogues, followed five days later by another set of two attacks on a British bank and British consulate in the Turkish capital. Ramadan 2003 also saw a suicide attack on a Saudi housing compound, and a foiled plan to attack pilgrims in the holy city of Mecca. A plan to blow up a hotel in Yemen used by Americans during the holy month was also thwarted.
We can expect terrorists to be active this Ramadan as well?a thirty day month that will begin on the Gregorian date October 15. Ramadan marks the height of religious fervor during the Islamic year. The month is spent fasting, praying, and celebrating with friends and family. Muslims consider the focus on the religion during Ramadan as a chance to get back on the ?straight path,? if they have strayed during the year. In this way it somewhat resembles the New Year in America, when resolutions for life change and new beginnings are made. For radical Muslims, the surge of religiosity during Ramadan urges them to jihad or martyrdom. For this reason, Ramadan will be an opportune time for terrorist recruitment, including a swell of fighters into Iraq. It is also an ideal time for operations. Some Muslims believe that the heavenly rewards for ?martyrs? like suicide bombers are greater if the martyr is on a Ramadan fast when he is killed.
Ramadan is the month when the first suras of the Koran were revealed to the Prophet Mohammed. The specific night that the first sura was handed down falls at some point during the last ten days of the month, on a night called ?Laylat al-Qadr,? or ?The night of power.? According to the Koran, the Night of Power is when angels and spirits descend to earth to carry out God?s will. It is the religious apex of the Muslim year, an event when everyone should be on guard. In 2002, terrorists shot down an Israeli plane over Kenya on the day of Laylat-al Qadr. Also significant religiously and symbolically, the Battle of Badr was fought by the Prophet Mohammed against the pagans in the Arabian Peninsula during the month of Ramadan. It is one of the most important battles in the history of Islam, and the one most frequently invoked by terrorist leaders such as Bin Laden and Zarqawi.
There is another very important reason why Ramadan may be an active time for terrorists, aside from its religious significance. During Ramadan, fasting during the day means that people are up late into the night eating and celebrating, often until five or six am, or else they wake before the sun rises to get a meal before the day starts. Schedules and hours are switched around at schools, offices, and shops. Commercial centers are swamped at odd hours in a surge of holiday spending. During the day, people are deprived of food, caffeine, and nicotine, and are tired and distracted. Just before sundown, the world comes to a halt as everyone drops what they are doing to rush home to break the fast, often causing massive traffic jams. Tactically, Ramadan is an excellent time to catch people off-guard, take advantage of their distractedness and the disorganization that accompanies the holy month. Security guards and police are not going to be on their toes, and the general irregularity means they are less likely to pick up on changes in the environment or suspicious activity. The packed streets of Muslim countries? urban centers at sundown and during the night are advantageous for terrorists seeking high body counts. For these reasons, Muslim countries are most likely to get hit during this time. Symbolically, attacks on Muslim countries during the religious height of the year are a message from Islamists to targeted Muslim regimes to return to Islam, or be punished.
