The Indian government postponed India’s and Pakistan’s fourth round of peace talks, initiated in January 2004, following bomb attacks in Mumbai that were blamed on Islamic militants of Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT; Group Profile). Historically, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate has supported LeT, which has conducted several terrorist attacks on Indian soil: most notably the multiple coordinated attack in New Delhi markets on October 29, 2005, killing 62 people and injuring over 200 and the attack on the Indian Parliament on December 13, 2001 that ultimately pushed India and Pakistan to the brink of war. This Kashmiri militant group is based in Pakistan and is banned by both countries.
Eroding Diplomacy between the Two Countries
Although, Pakistan and the LeT condemned the attack and denied any involvement in the bombing, India’s deferment of peace talks signals doubts over its continuation. The BBC reported that the sophisticated nature of the bombings and their similarity to train bombs in London and Madrid has led to some speculation of an al-Qaeda link. In a diplomatic row, India and Pakistan have expelled each other’s senior diplomats, adding fresh tensions to bilateral relations. India expelled Syed Mohammed Rafiq Ahmed, a counselor in the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi in retaliation to the arrest and expulsion of Deepak Kaul, Visa Counselor in the Indian High Commission in Islamabad on August 5, 2006. In addition, two Indian politicians cancelled their visit to a Commonwealth parliamentarians meeting in Islamabad that was scheduled from July 24 through July 25, 2006.
The statement by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that the peace process cannot progress unless Islamabad cracks down on terrorism represents a hardening of Delhi’s position. Shyam Saran, the Indian Foreign Secretary, pointed out in the New York Times that although India is committed to the peace process, it had been made “more difficult” by the bombings. On the other hand, Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Riaz Mohammed Khan has called the postponement of peace talks with India a “negative development” and denied Indian allegations that Pakistan had allowed its territory to be used by militants for attacks on its neighbor.
Another Challenge for India: Homegrown Terrorism
In the aftermath of the Mumbai bombings, Indian officials continue to interrogate several radical Indian Muslims who they claim are indirectly, if not directly, linked to the LeT. This hypothesis developed considering the 1993 Mumbai bombing (Terrorist Incident forthcoming), for which Indian authorities accuse a Mumbai Mafia don, Dawood Ibrahim. Indians say they now believe Ibrahim is based in Pakistan and that he has developed links to both al-Qaeda and LeT. Over the past years, the association between Ibrahim, ISI and terrorist organizations, has enabled its members to recruit and create a strong network in the Indian cities. Therefore, an immense distrust persists between the Indian and Pakistani intelligence community. LeT and radical Islamic elements are now deeply penetrated into the Indian society, and former Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee in Washington Post reintegrated that this infiltration in turn, has been the impetus for growth of homegrown terrorism. This was further proven when the Mumbai crime branch and the Anti Terrorism Squad busted two modules on July 27, 2006 and arrested a key LeT leader and recruiter, Faizal Sheikh. Also, the anti-terrorist investigators are now looking for nearly 50 LeT trained youth, who are believed to be hiding in Mumbai and its adjoining areas.
Conclusion
Diplomatic ties between India and Pakistan are strained and inconsistent. Further, the intelligence communities in both countries are at odds. For peace talks to be effective, these agencies will have to be in harmony. While not impossible, this scenario will be difficult to establish in the near-term, considering the complexities that have marred the relationship between the two countries over the past six decades. In light of the current scenario, the halted diplomatic ties have temporarily damaged peace talks. The peace talks are hoped to gain momentum during the Non-Aligned Movement summit to be held in the Cuban capital of Havana in October, wherein Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf are expected to discuss India’s concerns on cross-border terrorism and all other aspects of Indo-Pak ties. Until this stability is sustained, diplomatic peace processes will be futile.
