Recent incidents along the Iraq -Kuwait border demonstrate the potential for Iraqi security problems to spill into Kuwait. So far, Kuwait’s security efforts along its border and tentative Iraqi government pledges to assist in border security suggest that the two countries will be able to keep the relatively small border region from becoming unstable. However, Kuwaiti border security still exhibits gaps significant enough to allow terrorist groups to infiltrate Kuwait from Iraq in order to carry out terrorist attacks. Along with Jordan , Kuwait is known in the region for its “friendliness” to coalition militaries, particularly the United States , and its willingness to serve as a rear base for operations in Iraq. Both this political position and its geographic proximity to Iraq highlight Kuwait among potential foreign targets for Iraq-based terrorists and insurgents.
On August 22 and again on September 1, Kuwaiti border patrols came under attack by Iraqi gunmen on the Kuwait-Iraq border. According to one source, there have been at least five recent attacks on Kuwaiti border controls. Border police also recently discovered a 50-fooet long hole in the border fence that insurgents or smugglers may have used to sneak into Kuwait.
Kuwait’s Border Worries
Kuwait has three main border security concerns on the Iraqi border. The first is the possibility of Iraqi insurgents attacking targets along the border or infiltrating the border to attack inside Kuwait. The second concern is a potential refugee crisis. The third concern is that many Kuwaitis fear that Iraqis have not yet relinquished claims on some or all of Kuwaiti territory.
Iraqi Territorial Disputes
While the installation of a US-friendly government in Iraq may ameliorate this worry, inflammatory statements by some Iraqi political figures and the news that gunmen from a recent attack were wearing Iraqi military uniforms and bullet proof vests has exacerbated Kuwaiti fears.
However, the new Iraqi government is unlikely to pursue any historical Iraqi claims to Kuwaiti territory. Iraq has moved quickly to quell Kuwaiti worries that it may be permissive of border violence as a way to assert claims to Kuwaiti territory. A joint Kuwaiti-Iraqi committee was formed in response to the border incident of August 21, and the Kuwaiti Acting Prime Minister publicly commended Iraqi officials for their commitment to border security.
Refugee Influx
A mass refugee crisis is also unlikely to materialize. Kuwait stated following the US-led invasion that it would not accept Iraqi refugees, and there has been no pressure on the New Jersey-sized country to recant that assertion. Instead, Iraqi refugees have flowed into Jordan, Syria , and other nearby countries.
Terrorist Violence
The threat of insurgent or terrorist violence spreading from Iraq to Kuwait is the most substantial danger Kuwait faces from its northern neighbor at this time. The presence of insurgents in southern Iraq as well as the discovery of the 50-foot hole in the border fence underscores the reality of the threat. Other incidents also foreshadow the possibility of Iraqi-executed terrorism in Kuwait. In 2005, for example, Kuwaiti border guards uncovered a group of men attempting to smuggle a large quantity of explosives into Kuwait from Iraq by hiding them inside of watermelons.
Overall Kuwait has taken a “stitch-in-time” approach to border security, reinforcing physical barriers, increasing patrols, and attacking potential stability issues before significant security problems develop. Kuwait’s proactive approach will keep the country buffered from potential large-scale crises developing to the north, but the difficulty of intercepting small terrorist cells and cleverly-concealed weapons and explosives means that Iraqi-based terrorist violence inside Kuwait will remain a persistent threat.