As discussed at length in these pages over the past year, al-Qaeda has evolved and expanded globally with viral dynamics into a constellation of regional affiliate groups and vanguard outpost cells grown from within Western societies. Amid this evolution, the al-Qaeda nucleus of veteran leadership and operatives was considered to be harried and degraded in their operational capacity by counterterrorism operations, serving instead to issue ideological and strategic guidance to its global constellation and to continue to plan ‘spectacular’ terrorist attacks. The recent jihadist plot to bomb as many as 10 transatlantic airliners en route to the United States represents a worrisome trend in this evolution.
Vanguard outpost cells range in their operational nexuses with the al-Qaeda nucleus from relatively isolated and autonomous cells inspired by al-Qaeda’s militant ideology and enabled by the terrorist operational resources within the jihadist cyberspace but with little to no direct operational connection to the al-Qaeda nucleus to serving as an al-Qaeda foreign legion with greater sanction, guidance, and/or support from leaders or operational advisors. The scale, audaciousness, sophistication, and drama of the recent plot are hallmarks of the al-Qaeda nucleus’s modus operandi. The plot is reported to have involved more than two dozen operatives, divided into cells of two or three people unaware of other participants Each cell was to assemble explosives mid-flight on as many as 10 transatlantic airliners in an attempt to down the planes in stunning sequence. The plot is reminiscent of a 1995 al-Qaeda Bojinka plot , which sought to bring down multiple commercial flights over the Pacific Ocean.
The 2006 operatives were homegrown Britons, thus forming vanguard outpost cells. The cells allegedly received some form of al-Qaeda sanction, direction, and/or support from the core leadership, probably based in Pakistan . Indeed, a Pakistani security official told the Associated Press that the plot was sanctioned by al-Qaeda’s second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Further, Briton Rashid Rauf, arrested in Pakistan, is considered to be a central figure, overseeing and providing instructions to the operatives. Rauf is thought to have connections to al-Qaeda, particularly in Afghanistan , and to Jaish-e-Mohammed . A senior official in Pakistan quoted by the New York Times said that a senior al-Qaeda figure who remains at large, presumably al-Zawahiri, is considered the mastermind of the plot and that Rauf served as an operational liaison with the cells in Britain. Pakistani officials have suggested that the mastermind is based in Afghanistan. Investigators also believe a large sum of money was transferred to Pakistan to fund the plot (see this WAR Report).
The sophisticated nature of the plot and the emerging details of the investigation linking the suspected operatives to al-Qaeda leadership suggest the following:
? Homegrown al-Qaeda-associated vanguard outpost cells in Europe specifically may mature in operational sophistication, either through entrepreneurialism and savvy and/or with guidance and support of al-Qaeda leadership and operational advisors. The airliner bombing cells leveraged the intrinsic advantages of vanguard outpost cells in operational clandestinity due to their intimate knowledge of and connections within the UK in which they operated, with more dangerous and sophisticated terrorist tradecraft, presenting an increasingly stealthy and potent threat.
? The al-Qaeda nucleus remains a powerful actor in global jihadist operations, either in providing inspiration and/or strategic and operational guidance to vanguard outpost cells via communiqu?s or in liaising more directly with the cells to plan and support operations. The possible reemergence of the al-Qaeda nucleus after a relative operational lull since 9/11 may be the result of the al-Qaeda leadership’s longer-term mindset for its jihadist campaign, resulting in the perception of a slower al-Qaeda operational tempo by Western standards.
Though a definitive nexus between the plot and the al-Qaeda nucleus remains unsubstantiated, the nature, sophistication, and audaciousness of the plot and the details surrounding it suggest a heavy influence of the al-Qaeda leadership nucleus. That a homegrown vanguard outpost cell in the UK either concieved and operationalized such a plot on its own and/or received operational guidance from the al-Qaeda nucleus underscores the virulence of the al-Qaeda ideology to inspire jihadist militancy and the growing threat from more operational sophisticated vanguard outpost cells.
