Iran is likely to reject the UN Security Council Resolution requiring the cessation of its uranium enrichment and related research and development activities by August 31, 2006. The impetus for the resolution was Iran’s extended delay in replying to a package of incentives and disincentives offered by Security Council members in return for a verifiably peaceful Iranian nuclear program. Tehran believes it is operating from a position of strength vis-?-vis the Security Council and is disinclined to surrender uranium enrichment capability?an integral component of producing both peaceful nuclear energy and a nuclear weapon. In addition, domestic issues compel the Iranian government to resist pressure from Western powers and pursue its “indelible right” to nuclear energy under its own terms.
Factors Driving Iran’s Stance
Iran’s self-perceived position of strength is based on its growing regional influence and the subsequent key points of leverage it currently holds over Security Council members. First, Iranian allies?Syria , Hezbollah , and Hamas –are at the center of the crisis in Lebanon and Israel . Tehran believes its cooperation is a necessary element of the peace progress in the Lebanese-Israeli and Palestinian-Israeli conflicts. Second, Iran has developed considerable influence with Shiite militias in Iraq and has the power to wreak chaos there. US Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad confirmed as much, claiming Iran pressured Iraqi Shiite militias to increase mortar attacks on the Green Zone in response to Israeli air assaults in Lebanon and predicted a similar fomentation of violence if Iran is sanctioned by the Security Council (source). Furthermore, Iran enjoys strong energy and trade relationships with China and Russia ; based on past behavior, both countries will be reluctant to vote for any resolution approaching economic sanctions against Iran .
The Iranian public is discontent over rising unemployment, corruption, and government ineptitude that plague the country’s economy. However, the Iranian government and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in particular, enjoy strong public support for the nuclear policy. The government has portrayed the nuclear issue as one in which western powers are using the UN as a vehicle to deny Iran its lawful right to nuclear energy. As it deals with a failed economic policy, the government intends to deflect the public focus onto the nuclear issue and its defiance of western demands. Moreover, if UN sanctions are enforced, the Iranian government can blame economic woes on the unjust punishment issued by oppressive western powers.
Iran’s Goal in Negotiations
Tehran recognizes the US, which leads the effort to curtail Iran’s nuclear program, is guided by a policy of regime change in Iran. Hence, they are not inclined to deal with the nuclear issue on a piece-meal basis. Iran is searching for a comprehensive agreement on economic and diplomatic issues with the West?specifically the United States–that confirms its status as a regional power and removes the foreign threat against the Islamic theocracy’s sovereignty.
