There may not be a better time to see if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is ready for peace with Israel . If given a way out of Tehran’s grasp, he may take it. To find out, US officials must talk to him and form a more accurate perspective on his priorities and requirements for his and Syria’s survival.
Observers have commented on al-Assad’s pragmatism. A decision to pursue pragmatism in foreign policy, rather than ideologically-driven strategies, is what brought Egypt and Jordan to make peace and turned Libya to rapprochement with the west, giving up its nuclear ambition. The international community must identify and recognize Bashar al-Assad’s pragmatism in order to design an effective strategy for dealing with Syria.
Elements within the US government tend to see friendly bilateral relations as an indication that a government is rational. But in Syria’s case, it was not pragmatic policy for al-Assad to cozy up to Washington, or Israel, in the first few years of his presidency. His constituency read strength in al-Assad’s maintenance of a “cold war” with Israel and his standoffishness toward the United States. It was during these first few years that al-Assad was in a coup-prone stage, as he attempted to fill his father’s shoes while executing some domestic liberalization. A reversal in his father’s foreign policy to placate stronger nations would have risked making him appear weak. Some analysts say that this stance cost him Lebanon, but it might have saved him Syria.
Al-Assad is in a strong position domestically, having weathered the withdrawal from Lebanon well. From a Syrian domestic perspective, he is in a position to act without having to take too much direction from the aging cronies of the previous regime. Internationally, al-Assad also has reason to reconfigure his policies. Currents within the Arab world are aligning against Iranian and Shia influence. This provides Syria with an incentive to rejoin the Sunni Arab community, rather than continuing to act as Tehran’s lackey and risk being ostracized by other Arab governments.
Syria is at an important crossroads. If Syria continues on its current path, it will become isolated and more reliant on Iran . Now is the time to see if al-Assad is ready to pursue a way out of that fate by ending his state sponsorship of Iranian terrorist proxies and making a peace agreement with Israel. Al-Assad’s amenability toward a possible peace treaty with Israel has been rumored. The exchange of at least some token territory to help him maintain his image domestically would be required, but gaining an end to Syrian support of Hizballah could be worth it.
The main obstacle to a Syrian-Israeli peace treaty will not be Bashar al-Assad, but rather other elements within his government. Finding a way to assist al-Assad in consolidating power over the rest of his government could help speed a peace process. In addition to ridding Syria of the more poisonous elements in its government, this is also an incentive that Israel or the international community can offer the Syrian President in exchange for peace.
Many of the demands Washington has made on Syria require al-Assad to risk looking weak and threaten his grip on power. In order to develop a successful Syria policy, the US and Israel must come up with an arrangement that recognizes Bashar al-Assad’s domestic situation and strengthens him over more radical elements within his government.
