The tenuous relationship between Islamists and the interim government is deteriorating rapidly. Gedi’s win is not necessarily a vote of confidence in him, but rather a vote for any form of government than a reversal to the warlordism of years past. Moderate Muslims outnumber radicals in Somalia, so war is not assured, and the former may restrain the latter while working toward a power-sharing government. Union of Islamic Courts’ (UIC, Group Profile) Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys is one to watch, as he becomes increasingly radical in his firebrand rhetoric, but moderates like UIC Chairman Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, who should be encouraged to dialogue, are becoming increasingly critical of the Gedi government, especially for allowing Ethiopian troops on their soil. While international interests, including the UN and African Union, discuss bringing peace to Somalia, tensions and armaments continue to build.
Internal Political Climate
Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi, whose government was formed in 2004, is the 14th central government since Mohamed Siad Barre’s ouster in 1991. He survived a vote of no confidence on July 30; however, the government does not control much past Baidoa, the provincial seat of government. The vote may be a way to usher in a power-sharing agreement with radical Islamists from the UIC, a coalition of Islamic courts that control specific areas and dictate shari’a interpretation. Gedi comes from the Ayer clan as the Islamists, so his post was long thought to attract Islamists to work with the government. Power-sharing may avert a return to civil war, but it will also dilute political control to the Islamic movement. As of August 4, 39 ministers and assistant ministers had resigned their positions. The mass resignations were in protest over Gedi’s poor handling of the UIC. The ministers also cite Gedi’s “lukewarm” effort to resolve the brewing crisis.
The Islamists have not agreed to the power-sharing concept and may, in fact, aim to overrun the government, the rest of Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya and install shari’a law. The first commercial plane, likely loaded with Eritrean weapons for the UIC, recently landed in Mogadishu, an event heralded as the UIC’s restoration of order to the lawless nation. The UIC is popular for quashing warlords, which the US is suspected of supporting; however, their rallies have been quite small. While Chairman Ahmed disavowed terrorism and denied ambitions of shari’a law in Somalia, he told Asharq al-Awsat, that the UIC would “teach them a lesson” should the US intervene. In what could be further deleterious to domestic equilibrium, a UN envoy praised the ICU for eliminating roadblocks and omnipresent gunmen in Mogadishu, saying “[the ICU] has achieved great things…” (source). However, the UIC has banned “immoral and offensive” films in their area of control. During June and July, the UIC also shut down theaters that showed the World Cup soccer tournament and killed two fans.
Gedi supporters in Baidoa celebrated the vote with chants of “Long live Gedi’s government.” Many fear a Taliban -style regime in Somalia should Gedi be toppled. US President Bush even noted: “The first concern is to make sure that Somalia does not become an al-Qaeda [Group Profile] safe haven [or] a place from which terrorists can plot and plan” (source). The US is likely to continue supporting Gedi, as the UIC is accused of harboring al-Qaeda operatives responsible for the 1998 east Africa bombings (Terrorist Incident and Terrorist Incident). The Gedi government is on shaky terrain with a threat of Islamism overtaking Mogadishu and swaths of southern Somalia. US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer called on the international community to support the Gedi government establish a defense force with training to protect “transitional federal institutions” and combat the growing radical Islamic movement. The Islamic courts have rejected proposals of foreign military presence in Somalia.
External Political Climate: War by Proxies
Inter-Governmental Authority on Development
The growing tensions between the Gedi government and the UIC are unlikely to be resolved without external assistance. The African Union has been involved in the current peace talks, and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), comprised of neighboring states, was stood up to mediate and sap this conflict by deploying peacekeeping troops. However, two key IGAD states–?Ethiopia and Eritrea –are accused of sending troops to support the Baidoa government and sending arms to support the ICU, respectively. Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a two-year war, and Somalia and Ethiopia fought wars in 1964 and 1977. According to The Economist, Ethiopia, suspected to have had troops north of Baidoa and the Ogaden region, has long meddled in Somalia for defensive posturing and to support friendly warlords.
Ethiopia v. Eritrea
Neither country wants to see the other empowered by the ruling regime in Somalia. As such, international monitors fear a proxy war in Somalia between Ethiopia and Eritrea, both of which have an increasing military presence there. UIC hardline cleric Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, on the Department of State list of suspected terrorists for having documented links to al-Qaeda and once the leader of al-Itihaad al-Islamiya , denounced Ethiopia’s “intervention” and refused to negotiate with Gedi until Ethiopian troops withdraw from Somalia. Aweys’ sermons call on Muslims to fight in Somalia against Ethiopia and against the US. His faction has begun arresting individuals suspected of being Ethiopian spies, who could face corporal punishment under shari’a. The UIC may position itself to be the patriotic savior of Somalis, garnering support from among the masses. Ethiopia justifies its presence in Somalia for its own security, claiming that dissidents are among the ranks of the Islamists and are preparing to fight Ethiopia (source), which suspected Somali extremists in the May 12 attack in Addis Ababa . Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi will find any leader but Somali-interim President Abdullah Yusuf an aggressor and unilaterally unacceptable. Christian Ethiopia will “strike hard and early” in a holy war with militant Islamic Somalia, likely currying favor to the former from the US, which recently condemned Zenawi for human rights abuses in his country. Should a religious fractioning take place, neighboring Djibouti and separatist Somaliland are likely to side with Ethiopia, thus involving the entire Horn of Africa.
