The Philippines’ most dangerous and radical terrorist organization, the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG; Group Profile), has been under significant pressure from Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) soldiers and marines since early last week. The AFP campaign in the southern islands has been one of the largest efforts in recent years and is bolstered by US intelligence and military support, to include advisors, reconnaissance aircraft, and unmanned aerial vehicles for surveillance. Jolo Island, near Malaysia in the Sulu archipelago in the country’s extreme southern portion, is a longstanding ASG haven, home to Islamic unrest and violence for decades, and has seen the most fighting.
Current Fighting
Large numbers of AFP troops and robust US support has made this latest campaign worth watching. On August 7, 2006, several news media reported that the AFP made significant progress pushing ASG guerrillas out of strongholds and killing several low level fighters. ASG leader Khadaffi Janjalani and two regional Jamaah Islamiya (JI; Group Profile) terrorists–Umar Patek, an Indonesian explosives expert and Dulmatin, a Malaysian electronics expert–remain at large.
The ASG is responsible for a series of kidnappings to include periodic beheadings, and bombings in the region that has killed both westerners and Philippinos,. JI members Patek and Dulmatin are believed to have been involved in the 2002 Bali bombing , which killed nearly 200, and a Marriott hotel bombing in 2003 in Jakarta .
Unlike past campaigns, progress appears to be good, thus far, with the AFP reporting that it overran an ASG camp on August 7, 2006 in Indanan Municipality, in Jolo’s northwest portion. A US Navy spokesperson claimed the US personnel were on the ground, providing support and evacuating wounded.
While the current campaign appears to be the best effort in years, ASG leader Janjalani and his JI companions have escaped numerous dragnets in the past. Given the abundance of jungle, marshes, boats, and water, it is possible they may slip away again.
The Young and the Restless
Guerrilla clashes in the south are a long way from Manila and have been little more than bad sitcoms compared to the soap opera that seems to be Philippine national politics. In the latest episode of ongoing instability, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo declared a state of emergency in February 2006 after security forces thwarted what they said was a plot to overthrow her. The result was significant civil unrest, some of which was almost certainly leftover ill will from Arroyo’s unseemly election tampering telephone calls that became public in May 2005. The Philippines also experienced significant “people power” civil and political unrest in 1986 and 2001, both of which forced out corrupt administrations respectively but did little to reform the national political system. The political process continues to suffer from corruption, and reforms often languish.
High Ratings
Despite the political theater, however, the Philippine economy has improved significantly in the last few years based on developed nations’ sustained appetite for Philippine manufactured imports and favorable exchange rates. In 2004, the Philippine economy expanded by a rate of 6.1%, the highest in 15 years. According to The Economist Intelligence Unit, an increase in demand for the country’s electronic exports will provide a boost to Gross Domestic Product in the coming months that will reach 5.2% this year before slowing to 5% in 2007. Consumer price inflation is forecast to drop to an average of 7% in 2006 and 5.2% in 2007. Finally, foreign remittances from an army of skilled and unskilled Philippine workers toiling in Asia and the Middle East will ensure the current account remains in surplus in 2006-07.
Reruns
Little of the newfound wealth reaches into Muslim communities in the south; that is perhaps why guerrilla gangs employ kidnap and ransom. Regardless, while the fighting appears to be productive, it is doubtful that the AFP and their US, and likely Australian, military and intelligence allies will put a sustained dent in the Islamic fighters’ capabilities anytime soon. Military campaigns, swapping secrets, and riverine tactics will not change the underlying conditions that produced and sustain the ASG and other violent groups.
The near-term demise of Khaddafi Janjalani–a terrorist thug who deserves anything the AFP dishes out–would be a refreshing opening episode, but the season finale should include more development money and political enfranchisement, unlikely from the self-absorbed government in Manila.
