An absence of a strong, overarching power in Lebanon has often resulted in war. The current conflict and a weak central authority may attract an influx of foreign parties, seeking to exploit instability in Lebanese territory. If international powers do not come to Lebanon’s aid with forces and relief following the current crisis, al-Qaeda in Lebanon will bolster its presence in southern Lebanon. Even with the international powers involved, some strengthening of Salafi organizations like al-Qaeda and Asbat al-Ansar is inevitable in the wake of the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict.
These groups maintain their headquarters southern Lebanon’s Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp. Lebanese soldiers and police control the perimeter of the camp, but the two Salafi groups, along with Jund al-Shem , and a contingent of Fatah control the interior of the camp like gangs. Instability in the south disrupts the Lebanese government’s ability to keep such organizations confined to Ein al-Hilweh and other refugee camps.
Complicating matters, Lebanese from the south have fled to the refugee camps, which Israel has avoided in its bombardments. Members of Salafi gangs are likely to filter out of the camps as the populations merged. In the aftermath of the conflict, these gangs can be expected to form networks outside of the camps. In the absence of adequate international forces, relief materials, and efforts to help the Lebanese government establish control in the southern territory, these networks could exploit Lebanese disorder in the same way they have exploited lawless situations in Afghanistan , Iraq , and other areas. Writings by one of Osama bin Laden’s top commanders published in 2005 confirm that the al-Qaeda central command was forecasting that Lebanon might afford the group a similar opportunity to that which has been provided by the chaos in Iraq.
In the past, Shia Hezbollah’s control over southern Lebanon allayed the fear of a pervasive al-Qaeda presence there. Sunni extremists in al-Qaeda publicly denounce Shia Muslims and attack them in Iraq. However, some future living arrangement could possibly emerge between the groups.
The central al-Qaeda organization in Afghanistan is thought to object to the techniques of the Shia-murdering branch in Iraq. Members of this organization have demonstrated a capacity for alliances of convenience with unexpected parties.
Recently, the al-Qaeda leadership sent a strong signal to their followers that such arrangements may be sought in southern Lebanon. Al-Qaeda Number Two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, delivered a speech referring to the people of southern Lebanon as “brothers” and calling for unity with “the oppressed people in the land,” a self-referential phrase used by Hezbollah and other Shia (Terror Web Watch).
Successful reconstruction of southern Lebanon and the reconstitution of Lebanese government authority over the area is necessary not only to reduce the power of a maniacal Hezbollah, but also to prevent the expanded infiltration of al-Qaeda and associated Salafi groups into a country thick with American and other western targets.
