Hezbollah’s Arsenal
One of Israel’s reasons for its recent incursion into southern Lebanon is to put an end to Hezbollah’s ability to threaten Israeli territory with rocket attacks . The threat to Israeli territory has grown, as Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal has grown in size and sophistication over the past few years.
Estimates of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal vary. In 2004, the head of Israeli Military Intelligence stated that Hezbollah had approximately 13,000 rockets, while Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah claimed an arsenal of approximately 12,000 rockets. While many of these rockets were short-range Katyusha rockets capable of traveling up to 25 kilometers, Israeli military intelligence believed that Hezbollah also had 500 long-range Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 rockets capable of traveling 45 kilometers and a few dozen Zelzal-2 rockets with a maximum range of 200 kilometers. The larger Fajr and Zelzal rockets also carry increased payloads and, therefore, have a greater destructive capacity (see table). The Katyusha and Fajr rockets can be fired from mobile truck-mounted launchers and are difficult to locate and target with air strikes.
Previous Attacks
Israelis have lived with the threat of Katyusha attacks for more than a decade. Throughout the 1990s, Hezbollah targeted northern Israeli settlements with Katyusha rocket attacks. As Hezbollah’s arsenal grew and its ability to target major population centers, like Haifa, became a reality, the government and IDF felt compelled to act.
In this most recent conflict, Hezbollah launched the long-range Fajr rockets. The most recent Fajr rocket attack occurred on August 6, 2006 . This attack was significant not only because Hezbollah used the more advanced Fajr rockets, but also that it was able to launch the rockets from Tyre (source). As a result, in order to eliminate the threat from Hezbollah’s mobile long-range rockets, Israel may be forced to clear swaths of territory in southern Lebanon.
Israel’s Diminishing Options
The long-range rockets, including the Fajr and Zelzal rockets, allow Hezbollah to terrorize and influence the Israeli public from increased standoff distances. These weapons may be used to bait Israel into a long-term engagement in Lebanon and force the IDF to confront Hezbollah’s military arm in a potentially unsustainable counterinsurgency operation. Hezbollah has proven that it can fight the IDF and force its withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Israel appears to be faced with two options. It can attempt to clear a large buffer zone in the south and risk being sucked into a guerrilla war that favors Hezbollah, but the southern buffer zone does not necessarily eliminate Hezbollah’s ability to attack Israel with its increasingly sophisticated arsenal of long-range rockets. Alternatively, Israel can target Hezbollah’s mobile rocket launchers with air strikes. However, this option risks civilian casualties, like the bombing in Qana, that turn international opinion against Israel.
