As passenger screening and other commercial aviation security measures improve, terrorists will likely resort to Man Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) to attack commercial aviation targets.
The attacks on 9/11 led to a drastic revision of commercial aviation security policies. These policies, such as hardened cockpit doors and tighter passenger screening procedures, have helped reduced the threat of hijackings but have not eliminated threats against commercial aviation. Rather than attempt another hijacking, a terrorist group intent on attacking commercial aviation may simply strike the target in another way. A potential avenue of attack, one that has not been resolved by the post-9/11 aviation security upgrades, is the use of Man Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS). In fact, a 1993 FAA study noted that as passenger and baggage screening became more intense, the likelihood of a MANPAD attack against commercial airliners would increase. Given this reality, it is important to understand how terrorist or insurgent groups acquire MANPADS and how they might use MANPADS to achieve their strategic goals.
HOW MANPADS ARE ACQUIRED
There are an estimated 500,000 MANPADS stockpiled around the world (source). Thousands are thought to be in circulation on the black market. The most available and most sought after MANPADS include the Russian-made SA-7 (aka Strela), an old and unsophisticated system. More sought after but less available systems include the Russian-made SA-18 (aka Igla), and the US-made FIM-92 (aka Stinger). The collapse of the Soviet Union resulted in an increased availability of Russian-made MANPADS, as black marketers infiltrated the Russian arms trade. Advanced MANPADS, such as the Stinger and Igla, can be procured on the black market for approximately $30,000, while earlier generation and less sophisticated Russian systems, such as the Strela, can be procured for under $10,000 (source). Due to the availability and relatively low price, many insurgents and terrorist groups can acquire and afford MANPADS.
WHO HAS MANPADS
According to free-lancer writer Thomas B. Hunter, 27 non-state insurgent and terrorist groups possess MANPADS (source). Of principle concern are those groups, such as the Taliban and al-Qaeda , interested in attacking US entities. According to media source, the CIA supplied the Afghan mujahideen with approximately 1,000 Stinger missiles during its war against the Soviet Union (source). However, the Taliban retained some of the missiles and had as many as 50 Stingers in its possession shortly after 9/11 (source).
Al-Qaeda acquired Russian-made MANPADS, proven in its unsuccessful attack against US warplanes at the Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia and a failed attack against an Israeli commercial aircraft on November 28, 2002 in Mombasa, Kenya . While al-Qaeda’s two MANPAD attempts failed, those attacks were carried out with less sophisticated SA-7s, which use an infrared (IR) seeker to lock in on the infrared energy emission of the targeted aircraft. Simple countermeasures, such as flares, can defeat the SA-7’s IR seeker. The SA-18 and Stinger missile systems have more sophisticated IR seekers that can discern the difference between a flare and the aircraft.
MANPADS AND AL QAEDA’S STRATEGIC GOALS
MANPADS are an ideal weapon for al-Qaeda. In addition to being inexpensive, portable, and lethal, they allow al-Qaeda to carry out its ‘bleed until bankruptcy’ strategy. In a paper entitled Protecting Commercial Aviation Against the Shoulder-Fired Missile Threat, RAND estimated that a successful attack against a US civilian airliner in US airspace would have severe consequences for the US economy. Direct cost (ie lost life and the lost aircraft) from a downed civilian airliner would amount to approximately $1 billion. The indirect costs from an attack would be felt from a government-mandated shutdown of the airline industry and long-term public reluctance to fly. According to RAND, loses over the months following an attack, subsequent shutdown, and resultant public loss of confidence in the airline industry could total as much as $15 billion.
Consequently, many experts believe that MANPADS present a grave threat to US national security. According to Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph, “other than stopping weapons of mass destruction, I personally do not think that there is, in the area that I work, a higher priority than keeping MANPADS out of the hands of the wrong people.”
