Given the current status of Israel’s military campaign, Hezbollah is unlikely to launch terrorist attacks against Israeli interests abroad or against American interests for their perceived support of Israel . The organization’s restraint lies in self-interest: Hezbollah is intent on surviving the Israeli onslaught and on drawing attention to Israel’s destruction of Lebanon .
Lebanese Hezbollah is a structured, political-military organization whose leadership makes calculated, strategic decisions. Hezbollah maintains a global operational presence, and terrorist attacks on enemy targets within Lebanon and abroad are a tool of the decision-making body. However, this tactic is unlikely to be employed unless the following developments occur: its leader(s) are assassinated, or Hezbollah’s existence as an armed militia is legitimately threatened.
The assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah by Israeli forces will produce a dramatic response from Hezbollah, likely in the form of a terrorist attack in Israel or against an Israeli target abroad. Historical precedent supports this assertion. Following Israel’s assassination in 1992 of Nasrallah’s predecessor, Sayyad Abbas Musawi, alleged Hezbollah operatives responded by bombing the Israeli Embassy in Argentina . Furthermore, if Israel is successful in killing and/or detaining a significant portion of the Hezbollah leadership, the likelihood of more terrorist attacks increases. Removing elements of the leadership will weaken the organization’s centralized command and control structure and inevitably produce more, radical splinter cells. These cells will be inclined to use terrorism as a primary tool, caring less for political ramifications and more for inflicting damages unto Israel.
Hezbollah has no intention of disarming and will use every weapon in its arsenal, including terrorist attacks, to prevent it. Members of the international community and Israel have discussed the potential of a multinational force entering southern Lebanon and assisting the Lebanese government in disarming Hezbollah. In this scenario, member countries would be subjected to terrorist attacks by Hezbollah within Lebanon and abroad. Likewise, should Israel alter its mission objective from degrading Hezbollah militant capability to disarming Hezbollah, terrorist attacks against Israeli targets in Lebanon, Israel, and abroad would ensue. While Hezbollah engages in social and political activities in Lebanon, its identity is tied to violent resistance against Israel. Therefore, a viable force attempting to remove that capability will be targeted by Hezbollah’s terrorist operatives.
Iran’s influence will also act as a restraint against Hezbollah terrorist activity. Currently, such an operation against Israel or a western target by Hezbollah is politically inexpedient for Iran . The negative attention from an attack will only increase pressure on the Iranian regime, which already faces international suspicion over its nuclear program and is targeted by the US as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. Iran has representatives on the highest Hezbollah decision-making body, has strong ties to the Hezbollah terrorist wing ? Islamic Jihad , and has provided over $100 million annually to the Hezbollah budget. Hezbollah will not launch a major terrorist attack without the consent of Iran.
