In an early July interview with a British newspaper, Lieutenant-General David Richards, British commander of the NATO-led peacekeeping force, remarked:
“We need to realize that we could actually fail here. Think of the psychological victory?if we failed and the Taliban [Group Profile] came back. Within months we’d suffer terror attacks?”
The tempo of Taliban attacks in Afghanistan has increased in the last 18 months. According to one assessment, the death toll of all war-related deaths in Afghanistan is consistently reported at nearing 1,500 for the year the 2005, making it by far the most deadly year since the beginning of Operation Enduring Freedom in late 2001. The Taliban trend in tactics includes increasing use of suicide bombings (see WAR Report) and attacks against less-well defended targets according to media reporting, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM) statistics and outside observers.
The quick collapse of the Taliban during Operation Enduring Freedom in late 2001 has not translated into the movement’s defeat. Four underlying conditions allow the Taliban to avoid defeat, regroup, and pose a continuing threat to both peacekeeping forces and stability in the country and region.
So Many Guns
Afghanistan and the tribal regions of Pakistan where Taliban elements find refuge are awash in small arms. Years of support for the Afghan resistance to the Soviet invasion and a new influx of weapons and cash following Operation Enduring Freedom delivered thousands of weapons into the region over the last 25 years. There are at least 100,000 illegal weapons in Afghanistan, facilitating conflict and undermining the fragile democracy, according to Ahmad Jan Nawzadi, a public information officer for the United Nations-backed national Demobilization, Disarmament and Reintegration (DDR) Programme.
So Many Pakistanis
Elements in Pakistan are almost certainly aiding the Taliban. In May 2006, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai accused components of Pakistan’s intelligence services of training pro-Taliban fighters. Islamabad denied the charge.
In the early and middle 1990s, however, Pakistani intelligence did support Taliban fighters as a means to stabilize Afghanistan and establish a government composed of Pakistan-friendly Pashtuns rather than northern ethnicities, such as Tajiks or Uzbeks. It is likely some elements of the Pakistani security services are providing at least indirect aid and comfort to Taliban fighters.
Karzai has accused Pakistan of not doing enough to control the border, and numerous media reports indicate Pakistani volunteers bolster the Taliban’s ranks. Many Pakistani volunteers likely come from the hundreds of Islamic seminaries that dot the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. In response to Karzai’s accusation, Islamabad responded that border security is Afghanistan’s responsibility too. Rightfully so, however, it is nearly certain the Taliban will continue to benefit from influxes of Pakistani volunteers seeking to support the Taliban cause.
So Many Poppies
According to the United Nations Office of Drug Control’s 2006 World Report, Afghanistan remained the world’s largest opium producer. Opium is derived from poppy blossoms. Of note, the report stated the area of Afghanistan under opium poppy cultivation fell 21 percent to 104,000 hectares in 2005, the first such decline since 2001. However, the report also warned the situation could reverse due to mass poverty, lack of security, and the fact that the authorities have inadequate control over its territory. Preliminary reporting in 2006 from several media sources indicates the poppy harvest in Helmand province may be one for the record books.
Despite Taliban efforts to clean up poppy cultivation prior to Operation Enduring Freedom, the group appears poised to benefit from the potentially massive revenues generated from poppy processing and sales. In 2005 Congressional testimony, Robert B. Charles, Assistant Secretary of State for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement, stated that drug profits are ‘almost definitely’ funding the Taliban. We believe the trend will continue.
There’s No Place Like Home
Finally, for many Taliban members Afghanistan is their ancestral homeland.
In the past, the ranks of the Taliban have been domination by Pashtun tribes that form the dominant social and ethic groupings along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and within Afghanistan’s southeast provinces.
Some members of Pashtun tribes such as the Durranis and Gilzais?and their associated subtribes and clans?view the Taliban as the only organization capable of removing the presence of western troops, restoring order to the country, and defending Afghanistan from encroachment by non-Pashtun northern ethnicities. This sense of Afghan-Pashtun nationalism combined with the fact that many Taliban members simply have nowhere else to go, will continue to challenge western forces’ efforts to uproot the group and implement a viable, democratic Afghan state.
