Supreme Islamic Courts Council, an Islamist group that cuts across Somali clans is increasingly consolidating power within the Somali capital Mogadishu and surrounding areas. The ICC seized a large portion of the country from the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) that had been in power since October 2004, during armed conflict in May 2006. While hostilities have tapered, the conflict between the ICC and the TFG continues.
Both groups continue to wage a war of words through the international press. In late June 2006, ICC Chairman, Sheikh Hassin Dahir Aweys, former leader of the radical Somali Islamist group Al Itihad Al Islamiya (AIAI) , announced his decision to expand ICC control over all of Somalia, while simultaneously imposing shari’a based Islamic law. Prior to this announcement it appeared the Transitional Government of Abdullahi Yusuf would accept a government power sharing with the ICC. This possibility was eliminated after Aweys’ public declaration. In the following weeks Aweys has scaled back his rhetoric by rejecting charges that the ICC sought to replace the transitional government. However, the TFG still declined to attend the scheduled peace talks on July 15.
Likewise Sheikh Hassin Dahir Aweys uses the foreign press to threaten the United Nations (UN) and other interested parties against intervention by African Union-UN peacekeepers. Fears of an Islamist state, willing to harbor terrorists, has prompted calls in the UN for a peace force capable of restoring stability to the country. In 2004, Aweys made similar threats against international peacekeepers, vowing to order shari’a militias to attack foreign peacekeepers. Aweys claimed that it was Somali’s “religious duty” to fight invading peacekeepers.
Regional Interests
The involvement of neighboring Ethiopia and Eritrea exacerbates the standoff. Both states seek to use the TFG and the ICC as proxies within their respective struggle. Reports indicate that 5,000 Ethiopian troops are currently in Somalia, acting as the TFG’s military force. The Eritrean government is actively supplying the ICC with munitions and tactical vehicles in an attempt to relieve the Ethiopian military pressure upon the Eritrean border. Any violence between the ICC and the TFG could involve Ethiopian forces.
Al-Qaeda
The ideological composition of the Supreme Islamic Courts Council suggests the group may sympathize with and support individuals or small groups to hide, plan and train al-Qaeda operatives, although a formal base structure of Islamist fighters – similar to the base that existed in Afghanistan -appears unlikely. Rather the ICC may act as a node for terrorist. The US government claims the ICC is sheltering al-Qaeda fighters and trainers, including the perpetrators of the 1998 East Embassy bombings (Terrorist Incident, Terrorist Incident).
Outlook
The ICC will continue to consolidate its power over Mogadishu and surrounding areas, skirmishing with remaining warlord militias while avoiding direct confrontation with Ethiopian or TFG forces. The TFG’s call for international peacekeepers, in the form of AU soldiers, will likely not materialize for some time, allowing the ICC to consolidate its gains.
