On July 9, legal advisors to presidential contender Andrés Manuel López Obrador filed a formal challenge to Mexico’s presidential voting results, citing excessive fraud, vote manipulation, and illegal campaign financing as grounds for a comprehensive recount. Mexico’s Federal Electoral Court, the tribunal that formally certifies the count and declares the presidential victor, will hear the challenge. However, López Obrador’s challenge is likely to run into difficulty, as a complete recount is not legally valid according to Mexico’s top election judge Leonel Castillo Gonzalez. Mexican law permits challenges to specific polling stations when sufficient evidence is provided for a recount of specific polling sites. López Obrador’s Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) is alleging irregularities at an estimated 50,000 polling places out of 130,000.
Upon reviewing the evidence submitted by the López Obrador campaign, the tribunal of seven magistrates must decide if individual ballot boxes were manipulated, voters were intimidated, or financial irregularities violated campaign financing laws. The court must declare the winner by September 6. A lengthy process is not unheard-of, as the 2000 election of Mexican President Vicente Fox was not formally announced until nearly a month after voting occurred.
The court’s magistrates are nominated by Mexico’s Supreme Court and confirmed by a two-thirds vote of the Senate. The court is perceived as an impartial, professional body among the Mexican populace and press. Since 2000, the tribunal has issued a number of decisions altering and/or impacting state and national election results:
• The tribunal discarded the Institutional Revolutionary Party’s (PRI) victory in Tabasco state governor’s race in 2000 due to official interference. The court ordered a new election to be held.
• A court ruling removed the majority PRI government of the Yucatan state electoral board in 2000. The move resulted in a National Action Party (PAN) victory in the following gubernatorial election.
• The tribunal aned a PRI victory in Colima state in 2003. The court ruled that the outgoing PRI governor had intervened illegally by imposing roadblocks and intimidating opposition supporters.
• The tribunal upheld a $91 million fine against the PRI for using government funds in 2000 presidential race.
These rulings have been well received by the populace and have been described as fair and impartial by outside observers.
More troubling to the Fox administration than the potential for a drawn out election challenge is the ongoing mass mobilization of López Obrador supporters and the potential for demonstrations to turn riotous. Although López Obrador has demanded peaceful protests from his supporters, the slightest provocation could prove calamitous. Should protesters become violent, the Fox administration would be placed in the unenviable position of dispersing, perhaps violently, PAN and PRD supporters, surly invoking sharp denunciations from the PRD demonstrators.
General instability within Mexico is causing considerable apprehension among financial investors who remain unconvinced of López Obrador’s peaceful civic demonstrations and leftist-populist tendencies. Since 2000, while international investors have been attracted to investment opportunities in the growing Mexican economy, they are fearful of either a potential López Obrador victory, which now looks doubtful, or general social instability. López Obrador’s refusal to acknowledge Calderón’s victory upon the official declaration by the Federal Electoral Court, although unprecedented, is not outside the realm of possibility. Should López Obrador’s supporters continue to refuse to recognize Calderon, demonstrations could paralyze the Mexican economy for some time and escalate capital flight. However, a responsible concession by López Obrador would ensure a 2012 presidential run and increase his legitimacy and patriotism among Mexico’s populace.
Additionally, a Calderón victory, although viewed as positive by PAN supporters and the international business community, will likely result in six more years of deadlock. Since taking office in 2000, Fox has contended with an opposition congress that has rejected the majority of Fox’s economic reform proposals. Calderón will likewise face a hostile congress, as the PRD party took 127 seats and the PRI 103 to the 206 of PAN. The lack of a clear and favorable majority will necessitate Calderón’s PAN to ally with PRI legislators, a task made difficult by the animosity that exists between the two parties.
As stated in the TRC 2006 Projections “the process before and after the Mexican election matters far more than who actually proves triumphant…non-recognition, violence and intimidation must not be permitted” . Upcoming weeks will determine the future of Mexico’s democratic march that remains troubled by inexperience.
