The term “powder keg,” despite its media appeal, may be a bit overstated and alarmist for the current geo-political climate in Germany . However, Federal Prosecutor Kay Nehm is better served to overstate than understate the possible threat to the country during the World Cup competition, set to begin on June 9. Nehm also stepped back in saying: “Assessing the security situation is not the federal prosecutor’s job,” according to Der Tagesspiegel. Rather, he used the term in reference to other internationally noteworthy attacks by indigenous radicals: London and Madrid .
Interior Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has made similar statements that “terrorism [is] the biggest threat to the World Cup,” as reported in the BBC. While the World Cup games might make a good target for Islamist terrorism, it is far more likely that the games will be besmirched by hooliganism and neo-Nazism , particularly at the large, open-air TV areas where most people will congregate to watch the matches . Some of the viewing areas can hold upward of 20,000 people, making security a tremendous challenge. Notably, the June 10 UK versus Paraguay game?England’s opening match?may underscore the danger posed by hooligans. Similarly, the June 14 Germany versus Poland match also has the propensity to be marred by hooliganism. According to the BBC, Polish hooligan chat sites have focused attention on that particular game. This should be taken quite seriously, as German and Polish hooligans rumbled in a German forest in November 2005 in anticipation of the rivalry. Also, the June 21 Iran versus Angola match may be problematic with the neo-Nazi movement planning solidarity marches for Iran and its anti-Israel views and its anti-black stance. Thus far, the German government is allowing NPD (National Democratic Party) protests to take place; these are likely to become violent, as counterdemonstrators clash with them. The strongest neo-Nazi sentiments come from the former East, which is hosting few matches. However, a former politician stirred the proverbial hornet’s nest in late May in commenting that foreigners might not get out of specific areas in Germany alive .
In an effort to illustrate the welcoming nature of the Germans, Der Tagesspiegel, ran an article about the 11th Annual Carnival of Cultures that took place over the June 3-4 weekend. A nine-hour parade included 4,300 participants of 70 nations in traditional dress and with traditional music. Berlin’s Mayor Klaus Wowereit said: “Here you can see it: integration is really happening, as all the nations are mixed themselves together. A majority of Germans do not condone intolerance; instead, we must stand up and show: We are tolerant.” The organizer of the parade agreed: “The party should show the attendees the many different cultures of Berlin.” Similar celebrations across Europe?Notting Hill Carnival and the Rotterdamer Zomercarnival?are illustrations of integration and tolerance.
It is critical to understand that there have been no specific threats of Islamist terrorism to the Cup. However, massive security precautions have been taken . According to the Reuters article, NATO will deploy surveillance aircraft, and 2,000 soldiers will support police in need, as allowed by the constitution . According to OSAC, 300 soldiers will be deployed four hours before and two hours after each match. Similarly, AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) planes will patrol the skies, and civilian flights must honor a 5.4 kilometer no-fly zone around stadiums during matches. Robots will sweep stadiums for bombs. The Schengen Accord will be suspended temporarily, hopefully stopping many of the known foreign hooligans from entering the country. Just last week, reports surfaced of possible female convert suicide plans, although unsubstantiated and largely believed to be targeting Iraq, not the Cup . Germany is anxious to rid itself of the gruesome memory of the 1972 Munich Olympics by hosting an uneventful sporting competition.
Nehm noted that “there was an increasing tendency for perpetrators to act alone,” a statement without base. Notably, both the London and the Madrid bombings were comprised of cells of multiple radicals, as was the 9/11 Hamburg cell. Similarly, the Black September cell in 1972 was also multiple individuals. And, even Baader Meinhoff and the Neo-Nazi movement rarely acted individually.
Naturally, it would be sophomoric to discount outright radical, Islamic terrorism from occurring. However, this possibility must be counterbalanced by feasibility. Security at the venues is quite tight; while security at the viewing areas is more problematic. No direct or credible threats have been issued, and no groups?including the al-Qaeda core?are believed to have the sophistication, the finances, or the operational ability to launch a massive attack. So-called vanguard outpost cells are more possible but remain a nominal threat in a country perceived as a ‘safe haven’ (source). The two softer targets of note: the viewing areas and transit infrastructure. However, far more likely are smaller-scale disturbances from belligerent, intoxicated hooligans and from the extreme right-wing.
