With the intensifying internecine conflict between Fatah and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the bankrupt Palestinian Authority unable to pay its 165,000 employees for three months running, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has demanded that Hamas ?start dealing with reality? (source). He has issued Hamas an ultimatum: accept a peace plan that calls for a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem, or he will call a national referendum on the matter. Additionally, Abbas has taken steps to strengthen and increase the Presidential Guard (also known as Force 17) in response to Hamas? recent deployment of a 3,000-man militia as a means to reassert his authority over security forces in the Palestinian Territories.
The ?National Reconciliation Document? is an 18-point program developed by the Israeli-imprisoned leaders of Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah. By limiting a Palestinian state to the territory captured by Israel in the 1967 war, the program implicitly recognizes Israel?s right to exist. The plan also demands the right of return for all Palestinian refugees and their families to their homes in Israel; the release of all Palestinian political prisoners from Israeli prisons; and the reform of the Palestinian security services and political institutions. By embracing the plan of those popularly regarded as heroes, Abbas has forced Hamas to make a clear decision: accept the plan and renounce their core principles that all of historic Palestine must be retaken, or reject the plan and dismiss an opportunity to revive critical international aid to relieve growing local discontent. Moreover, recent polls support Abbas? position vis-?-vis Israel, and he is eager for a referendum that reminds Hamas, Israel, and the international community of their shared stance. Following a confused reaction from Hamas to Abbas? ultimatum, the leaders of both Fatah and Hamas have agreed to meet twice daily for 10 days in hopes of reaching an agreement that removes the need for a referendum.
To mount a force that can counter Hamas and rival Fatah militas, provide security at multiple crossing points into Israel, and prevent the frequent barrage of rockets entering Israel from the Gaza Strip, Abbas intends to convert the Presidential Guard into a 10,000-man force. Through the cooperation of US officials, Abbas has made a request to Israel to begin expanding and arming his new force, currently comprised of 1,500 to 2,000 men. For several months, a guard unit of 150 has controlled the Rafah border crossing in southern Gaza, and Abbas?with encouragement from US officials?envisions replicating that effort at multiple, volatile crossing points. The momentum for a larger and more capable force was boosted by Israel?s recent authorization of a shipment of arms and ammunition to the Presidential Guard from outside sources, likely Jordan and Egypt . However, Israeli officials specified that the shipment was limited to arms that facilitate the protection of Abbas and expressed hesitancy over contributing to an enhanced Palestinian Presidential Guard. Israel had helped arm Palestinian Security Services following the signing of the Oslo Peace Accords, only to face their own weapons when the Intifida erupted shortly thereafter.
Abbas? actions may return confidence in his political leadership. First, while Israel refers to the ?National Reconciliation Document? debate as a Palestinian issue, a potential referendum that demonstrates Palestinian support for a negotiated two-state solution will significantly undercut Israel?s claim that a Palestinian peace partner does not exist . In turn, international support for an Israeli unilateral disengagement will diminish, and the potential for international aid opportunities will increase. Second, Abbas can potentially achieve a monopoly on legitimate violence and reassert control in the Palestinian Territories with his enhanced Presidential Guard.
