A recent upsurge in fighting between coalition and Taliban forces in Afghanistan would seem to mark the early salvos of an offensive campaign (see Terrorist Attack Database) by the Taliban and its entourage of other anti-government militant groups as forecasted in previous WAR Reports (most recently the May 10, 2006 edition) and other open sources.
While the Taliban attacks have proven aggressive, the group has suffered significant losses against coalition firepower, according to various battlefield reports. The prospect of continuing to endure such loses may compel a shift of tactics to dispersed and atomized action groups, mounting more hit-and-run, suicide bombing, and larger fast-moving raids that leverage the insurgent?s asymmetric advantages compared to larger conventional forces. Further, the smaller guerrilla groupings may also seek to leverage their hinterland and village strongholds?won variously through intimidation and begrudging tolerance of the local populace, national security forces sparsely deployed outside Kabul?s environs, and possibly corrupt and abetting governing officials. As reported by Pamela Constable in the Washington Post, Governor of Kandahar province Asadulla Khalid contends that Taliban fighters have already used ?civilian compounds near the village of Azizi? as ?trenches? to engage US-led forces.
The article notes, military officials do not believe that the recent violence has been the product of coordination between anti-government militant groups. However, TRC analyses over the past months have discussed an infusion of foreign mujahideen fighters and militant materiel, a growing entrenchment of Taliban militants within certain villages, particularly along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, and a burgeoning nexus and possible collaboration between the anti-government militant groups, all suggesting the existence or potential for a certain degree of coordination between groups. Should this collaboration grow, insurgent attacks will likely become more potent and audacious. Coalition forces reportedly scored a significant victory in the capture of three high-level Taliban commanders, including Mullah Dadullah .
As noted in the Washington Post, the southern regions of Afghanistan?including Kandahar and Helmand provinces?are likely to remain the central battlefront between anti-government militant groups and NATO-led forces. As the Taliban and its entourage of anti-government militants and local drug and warlords seek to resist the incursion of foreign and Afghan troops, the scope and ferocity of engagements are likely to grow in the near-term.
