In an unprecedented strategic shift in tactics, FARC leadership has proposed a peaceful election, void of attacks against polling stations, candidates, or voters. Since Colombia’s Constitutional Court approved Alvaro Uribe’s second bid for the presidency, the FARC vociferously has pledged a campaign of violence leading up to the May 28 elections. Calling for a general “blood letting” if Colombians re-elect Uribe, the temporary denunciation of violence ahead of the polls may symbolize the FARC’s inability to perpetrate dramatic and deadly attacks and/or may demonstrate the FARC’s awareness of the futility of their attacks.
Colombian public outrage was evident after two FARC attacks resulted in the death of 18 civilians ahead of the March legislative elections (Terrorist Incident and Terrorist Incident). The attacks, aside from drawing sharp rebukes from the majority of Colombians, assisted those parties most inline with Uribe’s policies and provided Uribe with a majority in both the Colombian Senate and Chamber of Deputies . Seeking to avoid the appearance of an inability to alter the course of Colombian elections, as the group has done so well in the past, FARC rebels appear prepared to sit idly by during the May 28 presidential voting.
Considering the hatred the FARC leadership possesses for the Uribe administration, it appears unlikely that the FARC are merely seeking other forms of struggle as suggested by the senior FARC leader Ra?l Reyes . Rather, the successful counterinsurgency campaign being waged by the Colombian military has likely taken an enormous toll on the rank and file of the group. FARC cadres are generally believed to be relatively young and inexperienced, as the older generations have died out, been killed, been imprisoned, or left the group. In contrast, the Colombian military has become more adept at conducting a unique counterinsurgent campaign, largely through the assistance of US military advisors and a professional officer core.
However, within a general guerrilla war, time is on the side of the insurgent. Although current government policies and military actions may be deteriorating the FARC’s ability to launch massive and audacious attacks, the all-out disintegration of the FARC is likely not occurring. Rather, the FARC is simply biding its time, replenishing its units through narcotics proceeds, and preparing for a future resumption of hostilities. Successful attacks upon an unsuspecting enemy are often more deadly and demoralizing than those that are expected. As such, their announcement does not equate to a ceasefire or to a promise of inaction on their part.
It would be unwise for the Colombian military, government, and populace to become complacent in the face of a determined enemy. Learning from past successes, the Colombian military must continue a counterinsurgency campaign in combination with coca eradication programs, ensuring that FARC forces are given little breathing room to revamp their fighting forces.