The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has gained ascendance among the ethnic militant groups of the oil rich Niger River delta region. Their tactics are becoming more varied and the rhetoric more focused against oil companies and the current Nigerian governing regime. That is bad news for US strategic interests since, according to a recent Bank of America report, Africa (18.7%) surpassed the Middle East (17%) as America’s largest source of imported oil in 2005. Nigeria, Algeria , and Angola were among the top 10 oil suppliers last year. Amazingly, even with three civil wars and a largely ineffective government, Sudan ranks with some significance among global oil exporters. As such, instability across the African continent will have an increasing impact on oil prices worldwide?even if the rates of such instability remain constant.
A review of the TRC Terrorist Attack Archives identifies at least 266 attacks targeting oil facilities dating back to 1971. Since 2000, the annual proportion of attacks on oil facilities conducted in Africa out of all oil industry attacks is listed below:
2000 22.22% attacks in Africa
2001 23.08% attacks in Africa
2002 25.00% attacks in Africa
2003 08.00% attacks in Africa
2004 01.64% attacks in Africa
2005 12.24% attacks in Africa
Thus far, in 2006 (through May 16), 22.73% of attacks on oil facilities noted in the TRC database have occurred in Africa. Out of those terrorist strikes against oil targets in Africa thus far in 2006, over 60% have been recorded in Nigeria alone. Overall, African targets represent 12% of all such attacks from 2000 through May 2006. Thus, according to the TRC Terrorist Attack Archives, Nigeria is the most volatile oil producing country of America’s largest single region source for oil ? Africa.
The technologically skilled and politically savvy MEND rebels frequently send email press releases to Reuters and other news agencies providing warnings of future strikes, taking credit for successful attacks, but also disavowing other incidents that obscure its political messages. MEND is opposed to foreign oil company economic exploitation, the current regime of elected officials, including President Olusegun Obasanjo and his cadre of state governor supporters, and foreign interests increasing their ties to the oil companies or Obasanjo government.
For instance, on April 7, 2006 a MEND email to Reuters warned: “Anyone found on Shell platforms previously attacked will be executed.” On April 30, in an email MEND took credit for a car bombing that day (Terrorist Incident forthcoming), announcing that it was “the final warning” prior to targeting “soft oil industry targets” such as oil personnel, infrastructure, and processing and transportation facilities. Most recently, MEND warned on May 12, “We recognize the catastrophic result of an unannounced attack on the [Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas] NLNG and will not do so without good warning to surrounding communities?We will destroy that plant but I promise you, we will carry out a terrible unannounced attack on an oil installation as a prelude to the NLNG attack and a warning to all to vacate that gas plant.”
MEND has used the media to disavow involvement in certain attacks as well. Most notably, the assassination of an oil worker in a drive-by shooting on May 10 was denied by a MEND spokesman using a recognized pseudonym Jomo Gbomo, in an email to the Associated Press. Gbomo also denied MEND’s involvement in the abduction of three foreign oil workers (Terrorist Incident forthcoming) who were subsequently released the next day, further attributing the abduction to a “community related dispute” between the village of Bukuma and the oil company.
In an April 30 communiqu?, MEND singled out China as a target, following recently concluded agreements with the oil industry, announcing, “We wish to warn the Chinese government and its oil companies to steer well clear of the Niger Delta. The Chinese government by investing in stolen crude places its citizens in our line of fire.”
Finally, on May 10, MEND communiqu?s began to acknowledge a domestic political agenda as a motivating factor behind current and planned attacks, suggesting that “The governors of the Niger Delta states are deliberately sabotaging the struggle for the liberation of the Niger Delta for selfish reasons such as greed and rule extension.” The email further warned that, “They will not be missed by the people of the Niger Delta and we will make significant attempts on their convoys.”
In sum, Nigeria?as America’s fifth largest source of oil?experiences more attacks on its energy sector than any other country within Africa, which, as a region, is the US’ largest source of fuel. Whereas in years past, violence was sporadic, episodic, and generally not well organized, since MEND formed in late 2005 as a splinter group of the Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force (NDPVF) and became known in its first spectacular attack against an oil pipeline on December 20, 2005 , its political message has been refined and the pace of operations has increased. This high rate of attack is likely to continue through the 2007 Nigerian elections unless a significant dialog is established with a peaceful ethnic Ijaw people’s delegation or even with the rebels themselves. In the meantime, it is unlikely the Niger River delta militants will remain as restrained as in years past with hostages and targeted bombings, so the lethality of attacks in the coming months should be expected to climb significantly.
