With a name like the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT), it is no wonder that radical Muslim clerics decry and even ordinary Mogadishu residents worry that the United States has stepped up its covert support of secular Somali warlords and even its presence in war-ridden country . The irony that instability has resulted since the creation of the Alliance in February 2006 is not appreciated by the civilians who have become accustomed to the comparative tranquility that has resulted from the ascendance of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) and enforced by its affiliated militia.
The Courts first emerged in 1992 and have steadily increased in size, power, and stature. Comprised significantly of former al-Ittihad al-Islami clerics and members, the UIC now boasts a militia of some 1,500 in the former capital city, often swelling after Court verdicts supported by various warlords who wish to demonstrate acceptance and approval by contributing armed manpower.
Although five warlords of Somalia’s new transitional government under the leadership of President Abdullahi Yusuf belong to the ARPCT, at least as many warlord/parliamentarians/ministers oppose the Alliance. Observers fear that strikes and counterstrikes that previously reflected gangland warfare reminiscent of organized crime and the mafia carving out commercial, if not directly political, turf may now be shifting in motivation and scope to ideological, religious, and even internationalized rationales. Previously Afghanistan-like heterogeneous factions in Mogadishu are now coalescing along two or three geo-strategic lines, pitting secular, Western leaning groups against conservative Islamic groups, harboring and perhaps benefiting from a significant al-Qaeda presence.
Yusuf supporters are suspected of receiving significant arms support via Ethiopia despite an international boycott of the country. Although locals report that prices for AK-47 rifles have doubled from $240 to nearly $500, they as well as rocket-propelled grenades, anti-aircraft missiles, and anti-tank missiles are now more abundant than ever in weapons bazaars. Yusuf, additionally, is reported to have negotiated maritime support both from the US Navy and from private American maritime security services. The BBC notes that US company Topcat Marine Security finalized a $50 million contract to reduce the coastal piracy plague and limit Muslim-funded military and financial aid to the UIC.
The prospects for stability in Somalia remain bleak. The transitional government has been too slow to assemble the requisite assets and insert itself into the Mogadishu milieu. Battle lines between Islamists and secularists are hardening, and guns and money are pouring into the country. Finally, since UN estimates suggest as many as one quarter of the population?2 million out of 8 million?face a critical food shortage since a region-wide drought killed half of the cattle in the country, Somalia now teeters even more closely on the edge of total political and economic collapse in 2006.
